The Canadian Grain Commission's week 42 canola exports, reporting activity for the week ending May 24 through licensed facilities, was reported at 288,300 metric tons. This is the largest weekly movement seen in nine weeks and the fourth-largest weekly volume shipped this crop year. Exports remain solid as we move into the final 20% of the crop year.
Cumulative exports are reported at 8.1294 million metric tons, up 6.3% or 483,300 mt from the same period in 2018-19, while 0.3% higher than the five-year average.
In May, the USDA's Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade reduced its forecast for Canada's 2019-20 canola exports by 100,000 mt to 9.2 mmt, closer to the 9.1 mmt forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada at the time. This came at a time when DTN analysis was pointing to the potential for exports to move towards the 10-mmt level.
The May AAFC supply and demand forecast resulted in an upward revision of 500,000 mt, to 9.6 mmt, a step in the right direction. At the same time, the red line on the attached chart trending above the black line shows that cumulative exports exceed the steady pace needed to reach this 9.6 mmt forecast. A quick calculation shows the current pace exceeds the steady pace needed by an amount of roughly 375,600 mt as of week 42.
Exports over the next 10 weeks will tell the tale. In 2018-19, licensed exports totaled 1.636 mmt in the week 43-52 period, while over the past five years, licensed exports have average close to 1.8 mmt.
Should exports maintain the current pace, the current forecast of 9.6 mmt plus the 375,600 mt that current exports exceed the pace needed to reach this forecast could result in exports reaching as high as 9.976 mt. As well, the current 8.1 mmt added to the five-year average volume exported in weeks 43 through 52 of 1.8 mmt would result in exports of 9.9 mmt, also higher than forecast.
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