Canada Markets

A Look at Cumulative Wheat Exports as of Week 23

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green bars show the weekly wheat exports from Canada's licensed terminals, measured against the primary vertical axis. The blue line indicates to volume needed each week to reach the export forecast, also measured against the primary vertical axis. The upward sloping black line shows the steady pace needed to reach the current export forecast and the red line shows the actual cumulative exports, both measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Canada's week 23 licensed wheat exports, which excludes durum while includes activity through the week ending Jan. 12, shows just 100,500 metric tons exported (green bar), the smallest weekly exports reported this crop year and looking back, the smallest weekly movement seen since week 29 of the 2016-17 crop year.

This follows the combined week 20, 21 and 22 weeks, when 755,500 mt was reported shipped, down 29% from the same three weeks in the previous crop year.

Cumulative exports as of week 23 at 6.9213 million metric tons, down 15.5% or 1.272 mmt from the same period last crop year and 4% below the five-year average for this period.

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 23 commercial stocks figure shows 2.773 mmt in-store licensed facilities. This is the lowest stocks reported in three years but slightly higher than the previous three-year average. Perhaps of greater importance is where these stocks are situated. The CGC reports that 56.9% of this volume is located in primary elevators on the Prairies, or 1.5783 mmt, while over the past three years, this percentage has averaged 48.6% of commercial stocks. A smaller percentage of stocks are in position for export shipping.

When seasonality factors are taken into account for wheat exports, we see that on average over the past five years, an average of 40.5% of total crop year exports are reported in the CGC's cumulative exports as of week 23 for wheat, a period that reflects the first 44% of the crop year. This average pace would project forward to total crop year exports of 17.1 mmt, well below the current AAFC forecast of 18.8 mmt.

Over the past five years, the slowest pace of movement as of week 23 as a percentage of total exports was experienced in 2017-18, when 38.3% of total crop year exports were achieved in the first 23 weeks. This pace projects forward to crop year exports of 18.1 mmt.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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