Canada Markets

Producer Deliveries as of Week 12

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart measures the percent change in producer deliveries of various grains into licensed Prairie facilities as of week 12 from 2018-19 to 2019-20, as well as from the five-year average. Despite the delayed harvest, deliveries have been strong, with total volumes up 1.5% from last crop year and 6% from the five-year average. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Producers have delivered 1.3703 million metric tons (mmt) of all grains in week 12, or the week ended Oct. 27, the smallest volume delivered in three weeks and down 7.8% below the four-week average. The Prairie harvest continues to struggle to reach the finish line, with this week's reports estimating the Manitoba harvest 85% complete, Saskatchewan 90% complete and Alberta 81% complete.

Producer deliveries this fall have been robust, with some producers forced to deliver tough grain to meet available drying capacity while off-grades such as high-green canola may also be readily marketed into homes where blending capabilities exist.

Year to date, producer deliveries of all grains into the licensed system are reported at 14.4509 mmt as of week 12, which is a record for this week. This is up 1.5% from the same period in 2018-19 while 6% higher than the five-year average for this period as seen on the attached chart. On a percentage basis, producer deliveries of wheat are the only ones selected for this chart where the year-over-year change in deliveries is negative, with the 4.8649 mmt of wheat delivered (excluding durum) down 7.4% from the same period in 2018, although remains 7.5% higher than the five-year average volume delivered.

Two crops that stand out are durum, with current producer deliveries up 32.9% from 2018-19 while 12.5% higher than the five-year average. Year-to-date exports of durum through licensed facilities are 72% higher as of week 12, which suggests this will remain a market to watch. Also on the same chart, producer deliveries of dry peas are up 34.5%, year over year, while export shipments are calculated up 57.2% higher than last year.

While not shown, data for producer deliveries into primary elevators by province shows volumes delivered above the five-year average for Manitoba (6.8%), Saskatchewan (7.7%) and British Columbia (8.7%), while deliveries in Alberta lag the average volume delivered (-6.3%), with the percent change from the five-year average in brackets.

Despite aggressive deliveries, elevator space remains favorable. For example, grain stocks in Manitoba elevators represent 37% of total capacity and 56.9% of total working capacity, as estimated by Quorum Corporation's Grain Marketing Program. Saskatchewan's stocks represent 46% of capacity and 70.8% of working capacity, while Alberta primary stocks represent 45.4% of total space and 69.8% of total working capacity.

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