Canada Markets

Canadian Crop Production Estimates vs. Final Estimates

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars represent the percent change from the July crop production estimates to the final estimates (two-year average for peas and four-year average for all others, 2015-18) while the brown bars represent the average change from the model-base estimates to the final estimates. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

One down, one to go! Statistics Canada's production estimates released on Aug. 28 were based on producer surveys conducted between July 4 and Aug. 5. This report will be followed by a Sept. 12 model-based production estimate release, which Statistics Canada defines as "course resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada's field crops reporting series, and agroclimatic data."

When we look at the bars on the attached chart, we see that on average for the selected crops the crop size tends to grow from the July estimates to the final estimates (blue bars, including revisions) and from the model-based estimates to the final estimates (brown bars). This analysis uses the four years of data since the model-based analysis began in 2015 for all crops except peas, which are calculated using two years of data.

For example, the final production estimates, including revisions, averaged 11% higher than the July estimates in the four years from 2015 to 2018, while this percentage grew to 19.2% for durum and 19.2% for canola, as shown by the first three blue bars on the chart.

The gap narrowed following the release of the model-based data (brown bars), with the final production estimate for spring wheat being 6.5% higher, 8.9% higher for durum and 9.9% for canola, as shown by the first three brown bars.

From this, we see that 1) there is a tendency for crops to grow in size in the final estimates released in December, regardless of earlier methodology use in arriving at estimates; 2) the percent change increase from the model-based results is much less than from the July estimates; and 3) the larger crops tend to experience a larger percentage increase in crop size than smaller crops shown.

Of the crops shown, estimates for wheat showed the greatest consistency, with the final production tally higher than both the July estimates and the later model-based estimates across all four years.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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