Canada Markets

Week 17 Pace of Wheat Exports

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The green bars represent Canada's weekly licensed wheat exports, while the blue line represents the weekly volume needed to achieve the AAFC export target each week, both measured against the primary vertical axis. The black line represents the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC target of 18 mmt, while the red line represents the actual cumulative pace, both measured against the secondary vertical axis. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Week 17 Canadian Grain Commission statistics show Canada's wheat exports (excluding durum) at 267,700 metric tons, the lowest weekly volume seen in four weeks and below the 340,200 mt of licensed exports needed this week in order to remain on track to reach the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada forecast of 18 million metric tons for the crop year.

As seen on the attached graphic, cumulative licensed exports of 6.0181 mmt (red line) remain above the steady pace to meet the 18-mmt target, which also includes unlicensed exports and the export of flour. This volume is 934,100 mt or 18.4% higher than the same week in 2017-18 and 11% higher than the five-year average.

The five-year average pace of movement as of this week (not shown) points to licensed exports averaging 31% of total crop year exports (including unlicensed exports and the export of flour) realized as of week 17, with data covering the first 32.7% of the crop year. This average pace would point to a current pace that would project to crop year exports of 19.4 mmt that compares to the five-year average of 17.5 mmt.

While Statistics Canada is set to release merchandise trade data on Dec. 6, Canadian Grain Commission data for the month shows the largest year-to-date shipments as of the end of October made to Indonesia at 614,100 mt (34.4%), Peru at 472,300 mt (38.7%) and China at 397,200 mt (96.5%), with the year-over-year volume increase shown in brackets. Movement to the U.S. is reported at 203,400 mt, down 46% from the same period in 2017-18.

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