Despite pressure on crush margins, Statistics Canada reported 838,014 metric tons of seed crushed in July, the second-largest monthly crush ever next to the record 870,998 mt that was crushed in October. This volume is 8.5% higher than the average monthly crush volume reported for the 2017/18 crop year, calculated at 772,435 mt.
Total 2017/18 crush is reported at 9.269 million metric tons, as seen on the attached graphic, the fifth annual increase seen in crush volumes. The year-over-year increase from 2016/17 to 2017/18 is calculated at .8%, which is the smallest year-over-year increase seen in the past five years, following a 10.5% hike realized in the 2016/17.
As seen with the dotted blue line on the attached chart, annual crush has exceeded the 15-year linear trend in each of the past three crop years (2015/16 through 2017/18). This trend projects forward to an annual crush of 9.617 mmt in 2018/19, which would require an average monthly crush of 801,417 mt, which is 3.8% higher than the average monthly crush in 2017/18.
This target would exceed the current AAFC estimate of 9.2 mmt for 2018/19, while the Canola Council of Canada estimates Canadian capacity at 14 plants at about 10 million metric tons.
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