Canada Markets

A Look at Late-July Crop Condition in Saskatchewan

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The blue bars on this chart represent the crop condition index calculated for selected Saskatchewan crops as of July 23, while the red bars represent this index for the same week last crop year. The green bar represents the five-year average for the last week in July (2013-2017, four years in the case of soybeans). (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

For the third straight week, the majority of Saskatchewan crops have been rated to range from fair to excellent. Given the methodology for calculating DTN's crop condition index (CCI):

(% Excellent x 3) + (% Good x 2) + (% Fair x 1) - (% Poor x 1) - (% Very Poor x 2) = CCI

Crop conditions improved during the past two weeks for a handful of the crops monitored by the government, including the winter cereals, the oilseeds and canary seed, while the remaining crops monitored showed some degree of deterioration.

The largest improvement was in winter wheat and fall rye, with the index increasing by 39 points and 60 points respectively during the past two weeks, as crops responded to varying precipitation received over the province while temperatures moderated.

The cereals, spring wheat, durum, oats and barley, along with peas, lentils, mustard and chickpeas all showed some degree of deterioration during the past two weeks. The largest drop was in Saskatchewan's mustard crop, which fell by 24 points during the two-week period to 107 points, also the lowest CCI of all crops monitored.

As seen on the attached chart, 2018 ratings for selected crops (blue bars), remain higher than ratings reported this time last year. When one compares the CCI for these selected crops to the five-year average calculated for this week (green bars), we see that indices calculated for this week vary but by a narrow margin overall from average levels.

The spring wheat index, calculated at 181, is equal to its five-year average of 181.8. The biggest miss will be durum relative to the average index, with this week's index of 124 well-below the five-year average of 158.6. Of the rest of the selected crops shown, lentils are rated slightly higher than the five-year average for this week, while all other crops shown trail their respective five-year averages, but one could say by a small amount.

On Friday, we will discuss Alberta's Crop Report, as well as implications for prairie yields and 2018/19 supplies, given this week's crop tour across the Prairies.


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