Given a look at random handling statistics as seen on the attached chart, perhaps what jumps out is an early jump in exports relative to 2016/17 and the five-year average, as well as higher-than-average levels of stocks in store both country and terminal positions.
Week 2 Canadian Grain Commission data shows a cumulative volume of 1.2602 million metric tons exported in the first two weeks of this crop year, a volume that is 51.8% higher than the same period in 2016/17 and 189,540 mt or 17.7% higher than the five-year average. This is largely the result of wheat shipments, which are running 53.5% higher than the same two-week period last year at 646,600 medic tons while cumulative canola exports are reported at 365,300 mt or 55% higher than the same period last year. Other crops such as barley, peas and corn exports through licensed facilities are ahead of the same period in 2016, while crops such as durum, oats and soybeans are behind the volume shipped in the first two weeks last crop year.
Primary elevator stocks are well above the same week as of 2016/17 at 2.6544 mmt, while also higher than the five-year average. This is down from the previous week and represents 36.6% of total prairie capacity and 56% of estimated working capacity. Of this volume, wheat makes up 51.3% of the total volume of all grains in primary elevators. while durum makes up 12.3%. By province, space is good across all three Prairie Provinces although the most congestion may be seen in Alberta and British Columbia. Primary stocks in Manitoba take up approximately 31% of the provinces total space, 33% in Saskatchewan, 48% in Alberta and 56% in British Columbia.
At 2.322 mmt, terminal stocks are also higher than both last crop year and the five-year average. Western terminal stocks (Vancouver/Prince Rupert and Thunder Bay) total 1.1 mmt as of week 2, or just 47.9% of the total capacity for these ports, leaving these terminals well-positioned ahead of harvest,
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