Week 10 Canadian licensed grain exports, which covers the period from August 1 through the week ending October 9, shows Canada's exports of major field crops at 6.714 million metric tons, down 9.6% from last year and at a four-year low for this week. The five-year average for week 10 is 6.645 mmt, with the cumulative 2016 volume just 1% higher than the five-year average. Of the major grains reported, exports of durum, oats, flax, soybeans and peas are above the same period in 2015, while the exports of oats, flax and peas are reported higher than their respective five-year averages.
At 562,900 metric tons, the cumulative export of durum is 23.6% higher than the same period in 2015, while is down 22.1% from the five-year average. Exports of oats are reported at 275,000 mt, up 16% from last year and 10.l9% above the five-year average. Exports of flax are reported at 59,000 mt, as of Oct. 9, up 273% from 2015 and 114% above the five-year average.
Canada's dry pea exports cooled in week 10 after six consecutive weeks of robust shipping. Week 10, or the week ending Oct. 9, saw 23,500 metric tons exported (shipments through licensed facilities only), the smallest volume shipped in eight weeks. As indicated by the attached graphic, the cumulative volume of peas exported is 1.174 mmt, as shown by the red line which is measured against the secondary vertical axis on the right. This volume is 24.9% higher than the same period in 2015 and 70.8% higher than the five-year average for the first 10 weeks. The current cumulative pace is closed to 560,000 mt ahead of the steady or cumulative pace needed to reach the current export target.
The Saskatchewan Crop Report indicates the dry pea harvest was 97% complete as of Sept. 19 while 95% of the crop was harvested in Alberta as of Sept. 27. Producers have responded with aggressive deliveries, with a total of 1.724 mmt delivered, as of Oct. 9, up 40% from the same period in 2015. A high volume of product was undoubtedly contracted during this year's run-up in prices.
Over the past five years (2011/12 through 2015/16) the tendency has been for exports to shift to a heavier weighting in the early weeks and months of the crop year. This ranges from a low of 17% of the total export program shipped in the first 10 weeks in 2012/13 to a high of 35.5% in 2015/16. The five-year average is 25.8%, while even an average pace of movement over the balance of the crop year would suggest that exports could far exceed the 3.2 mmt target set by AAFC. Over time, this could have implications for 2016/17 supplies; with an upward revision necessary for either 2016 production or 2015 ending stocks.
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