Canada Markets

Saskatchewan Crop Conditions Remain Favourable

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The Saskatchewan Crop Condition Index, based on government condition ratings, continues to reflect favourable ratings above 200 for most crops, while the four selected crops show an improvement over the past two weeks (red bar to the green bar). The most recent data (green bars) far exceed year-ago ratings (blue bars). (DTN graphic by Scott Kemper)

Saskatchewan crop ratings may continue to be a potential negative influence on market prices, with many crops showing condition ratings improvements as of the most recent June 27 report from the previous high ratings released two weeks earlier.

Over the past two weeks, the crop condition indices for the 14 crops rated in the province, based on DTN's methodology of introducing multipliers to each of the excellent, good, fair, poor and very poor ratings, saw improvements in 11 of the 14 crops. Improvements over this period ranged from a 1 point improvement for peas to an index of 228 to a 17 point improvement for the chickpea crop to 220. Another large jump in ratings was seen in durum, which rose 14 points from 224 to 238 over the past two weeks.

Not shown is a comparison to the five-year average for this point in time. The current crop condition index far exceeds the five-year average for this period. The current spring wheat index of 218 compares to its five-year average of 162.8, durum is 238 compared to its average of 159.8, canola is 208 versus its 142.6 average and lentils at 229 compared to the five-year average of 152.

The purple bars represent the contrasts with year-ago ratings for four selected crops. On June 29, 2015, the durum crop was rated at an index of 45, which was the lowest of all crops at the time. This is 193 below the current rating, while lentils were rated 140 lower, canola 114 lower and wheat 102 lower in late June 2015.

The driest area of the province is in the north-central area of the province. AAFC's Percent of Average Precipitation chart for this region in the April 1 through June 29 period is mostly 60% to 85% of average, with a small area around North Battleford rated at 40% to 60% of normal. Crop condition indices are lower given a higher degree of fair ratings, although spring wheat condition is still rated at 191 while canola is at 179.

NWS maps shows most of the province to receive moisture over the next seven days (1-1.5 inches), with the heaviest accumulation expected in days 4-7. Five-Day Highs Compared to Normal charts provided by DTN show daily highs to be normal to 3 degrees C above normal.

DTN 360 Poll

This week's poll asks what you think about current forecasts for Canada's ending wheat stocks at the end of the 2015/16 crop year. Will stocks be as tight as is being indicated in current government forecasts? You can weigh in with your thoughts in this week's poll, found at the lower right of your DTN homepage.

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