Canada Markets

Statistics Canada released its monthly Canadian International Merchandise Trade report for November today. Despite Canada's lower dollar, total exports of all merchandise totaled $43.3 billion, down 3.5% from October and the lowest monthly export volume seen in seven months as well as the third lowest month of the eleven months reported for 2014.

Farm, fishing and intermediate food product exports totaled $2.47 billion in November, up 8% from October and the fourth lowest monthly volume reported so far in 2014.

The attached graphic highlights the August-through-November exports for selected small crops for 2014/15 as compared to the same timeframe in 2013/14. At a glance, year-to-date exports for dry peas and lentils, as well as canary seed, are well ahead of last year's pace as we move towards an extremely tight carry-out for all three crops, given current AAFC supply and demand estimates. Exports of both mustard and sunflower seed are lagging last year's pace.

Exports of lentils in the month of November totaled 228,144 metric tonnes, a slowing of movement from October but a typical seasonal slowdown which may last through December and January. As seen on the attached graphic, exports are 37.4% ahead of the year-ago pace and also 58% ahead of the three-year average for this same time period. Crop-year to-date exports total 827,950 mt, 50% of the target of 1.650 million metric tonnes set by AAFC in its latest supply and demand report, with two-thirds of the crop year to go.

Exports of mustard in the month of November totaled 14,905 mmt, the largest monthly export volume this crop year. Year-to-date exports are 12.4% below year-ago volumes while 2.8% above the three-year average. So far this crop year, 43,806 mt has been shipped, 32.5% of the 135,000 mt export estimate as reported by AAFC, with the year-to-date pace on track to meet this volume.

Exports of canary seed for the month of November totaled 29,947 mt, more than double the volume moved in October and the largest volume seen in any single month over a period of years. Year-to-date volume totals 70,357 mt, 17.8% above the year-ago volume while 56.9% above the three-year average for this period. Cumulative exports of 70,357 mt represents 54% of the most recent export estimate of 130,000 mt reported by AAFC in November.

Canadian sunflower seed exports in November totaled 4,680 mt, the largest monthly volume shipped in seven months. Year-to-date volume totals 9,870 mt, 38.8% below the same period in 2013 as well as 22% below the three-year average. Cumulative exports of 9,870 mt are just 21.9% of the 45,000 mt export target set by AAFC in December.

Dry pea exports of 197,367 mt in November are down roughly one-third from October's volume but a normal seasonal slowdown after a record pace set this fall. Year-to-date volume of 1.467 mmt is 33% higher than the same four-month period in 2013 and 45% above the average of the past three years. As well, this volume represents 50.6% of the 2.9 mmt export target set by AAFC in December, with two-thirds of the crop year to go.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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