Canada Markets

Statistics Canada is filling in two of the last remaining pieces to the puzzle this week which will put a wrap on the 2013/14 crop year. On Thursday, the Canadian International Merchandise Trade report included final export data for Canadian grains, while Friday's report will indicate the July 31 stocks of Canadian grains, which in turn become the carry-in stocks for the 2014/15 crop year.

A Commodity News Service poll of trade analysts, as reported in the Manitoba Cooperator, has suggested the all-wheat carryout to range from 10.5 million metric tonnes to 12.3 mmt. This would be more than double the 2012/13 carryout of 5.052 mmt while also well above the 6.5 mmt five-year average (2009 through 2013). Calculating the average of the April through July disappearance over the past five years, while deducting from StatsCan's March 31 stocks, the all-wheat carryout would be 12.093 mmt and near the upper end of the estimated range.

Trade analysts indicated durum stocks at July 31 to range from 1.6 to 2 mmt. This is larger than the 2012/13 carryout of 1.152 mmt while close to being in line with the five-year average of 1.780 mmt. Average disappearance over the past five years is 1.726 mmt in the April-through-July period, which would imply an estimated carryout of 2.178 mmt when deducted from the March 31 stocks reported by Statistics Canada.

The range of trade estimates for the July 31 canola stocks is wide, ranging from 2.3 mmt to 3.85 mmt. This would be up substantially from the 588,000 mt carried out of 2012/13 and also above the 1.635 mmt five-year average. Friday's report could spark volatility given the smaller crop this year which is also behind the average harvest pace. For example, adding the lower end of the estimated range, or 2.3 mmt, to the 13.9 mmt production estimate from Statistics Canada would result in total supplies of 16.2 mmt, while Agriculture and Agri Food Canada have released a July forecast which included estimated total exports of 8.8 mmt and crush of 7.5 mmt to result in total demand of 16.3 mmt.

Barley stocks are estimated to be in the 1.7 to 2.25 mmt range, according to trade analysts, which would be well above the 983,000 mt carried out of 2012/13. The five-year average carryout is 1.829 mmt, leaving the projections close to the historical average. When considering the five-year average April through July total disappearance of barley, carryout would be estimated to be 1.950 mmt, also within the range of pre-report estimates.

Trade analysts have estimated the oat carryout to fall within the 1 to 1.4 mmt range. This would be above the 506,000 mt carried out of 2012/13 as well as above the 947,600 mt five-year average. When considering the five-year average of April through July disappearance of oats, the oat carryout could be in the range of 1.3 mmt, also within the range of analyst's estimates.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES)

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