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While Friday's USDA report was viewed as bearish for both the U.S. crop as well as the global crop, one global weather issue kept squarely on DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson's radar is the Indian monsoon.

The current monsoon season, responsible for up to 80% of the country's annual rainfall, remains a month late, with Indian moisture maps pointing towards the moisture from the current monsoon season being 41% behind normal across the country since June 1, which ranges from normal in the south-east and north-east areas of the country to what is termed as scanty, which reflects a deficit of 60% to 99% of normal moisture seen in the northwest region of the country. Of the 36 subdivisions on the map, 7 have received normal moisture since June 1, 19 have been classed as deficient and 10 are listed as scanty as of July 14.

The monsoon rainfall holds a great deal of significance in the country's economic activity, with Wikipedia suggesting the rainy season is responsible for 20% of the country's GDP, is responsible for creating jobs for perhaps hundreds of millions who are linked to agriculture and has close ties to the country's food inflation levels and the overall stability of the country.

As noted on the attached chart, 2014/15 planting progress for the kharif crop, as indicated by the green bars, is well behind year-ago levels and bears more resemblance to the pace seen in 2012/13, as shown by the blue bars, except in the case of oilseeds which substantially lag the seeding pace over the past two years.

The largest lag is seen in oilseed sowings, with 5.5 million acres seeded as of July 11 as compared to 33.6 ma of all oilseeds seeded as of July 12, 2013. Given the statistics for the nine oilseeds grown in India reported by the country's Agriculture Ministry, 68% of the oilseed production was produced in the summer kharif crop in 2013, with 54% of the kharif oilseed production being soybeans. Production targets for the 2014/15 crop year released late June by the Indian Ag Ministry total 33 mmt for the crop year for all oilseeds, with 22 mmt to be produced in the kharif crop of which soybeans are forecast to make up 11.95 mmt of the expected target, equivalent to last year's estimated production. Note these production targets were released on June 26.

Another crop which will be closely watched by prairie producers is India's pulse crop, with India being the largest producer and consumer of pulses. Thirty-one percent of the pulses produced in 2013/14 were produced in the summer kharif crop, while the country's forecasts for the upcoming crop year would see 7 mmt of the estimated 19.5 mmt production or 36% of the pulses produced in the earlier summer crop. So far this season, 3.3 million acres of the pulse crop have been seeded, almost 50% of the 6.4 million acres planted as of the same time last year.

Besides the crops mentioned, the kharif crop produces the largest share of the country's rice and corn crops. Crops such as rapeseed, wheat and barley, just to name a few, are produced in the winter Rabi season and are not yet in the spotlight, although there are some concerns that the dry summer conditions may have a detrimental impact on winter production.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(AG)

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