Canada Markets

This week we will see Statistics Canada move beyond the intentions of growers, as determined by data collected in March, to preliminary estimates as determined by producer surveys that will stretch into June. The language used in the past preliminary estimates report is that "farmers had either planted, or intended to plant", which may extend the debate as to what did or did not get seeded after the early June cut-off date for the study.

As seen on the attached chart, both canola and soybean acres have been understated in the early report based on March data, while cereals were largely overstated on average in the preliminary data, using data from the 2009 to 2013 period.

In the 2009 to 2013 period, canola acres were reported to average 4.4% higher in the preliminary acreage data released in June. The acreage reported in June was higher in each of the five years, ranging from 3.2% higher to 5.8% higher. Soybean acres proved to be 6% higher on average in the June report, also reported higher in the June report in each of the five years looked at, ranging from 3.4% to 8.7% higher.

Cereal grains, as well as peas, on the other hand, have proved to be overstated in the early report based on the March intentions of farmers. As seen on the attached chart, the spring wheat acreage reported in June proved to be the closest to the preliminary estimates of all crops looked at, while reported to be 1.1% lower on average in June than reported in the March intentions.

Durum acres were overstated in the March intentions report in each of the years from 2009 to 2013, with the average being 6.7%, the largest differential seen in the selected grains. The degree to which acres were overstated in the early report ranged from 2.6% in 2009 to 13.4% in 2011.

Not shown on the attached chart are summerfallow acres. Over the 2009 to 2013 time period, summerfallow acres have been overstated in four of the five years, ranging from .8% to 6.6% lower in the June report than reported earlier based on March intentions. In 2011, summerfallow acres were understated in the March report by 32.3% as a wet spring in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba resulted in higher unseeded acres. As a result the average over the five years is a 4% under-reporting of summerfallow acres in the early March report.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

(ES/)

© Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.