Canada Markets

Week 45 farm deliveries of wheat (as of the week ending June 15) into the primary elevator system have proved to be the highest weekly volume delivered over the 2013/14 crop year. There were 640,910 metric tonnes of wheat (excluding durum) delivered in week 45, up 28% from the previous week and also up almost 74% from the average calculated for the past three weeks.

Year-to-date deliveries of wheat into the system, according to CGC primary elevator data, are at 17.509 million metric tonnes so far this crop year, up 19% from year-ago levels and 25.2% above the three-year average for week 45. As can be seen on the attached chart, 2012/13 weekly deliveries reached an annual low in week 43 before trending higher through the balance of the crop year. Continued movement at the current pace would be welcome as growers scramble to move grain from temporary storage while making whatever space possible for the new crop.

Week 45 also saw the CGC report the highest weekly wheat exports seen this crop year at 592,710 mmt. This volume is almost double the average weekly volume shipped over the past three weeks. Year-to-date wheat exports from the licensed elevator system are reported at 14.560 mmt, 22% above year-ago levels and 26.5% above the three-year average.

My current calculations suggest that current year-to-date exports of wheat are 351,200 mt ahead of the cumulative pace required to meet the annual export target of 17 mmt as estimated by Agriculture and Agri Food Canada in May. This number is actually understated in that it does not include exports of flour, nor does it include unlicensed exports, reported at a cumulative 776,318 mt as of the end of March, which are included in the AAFC annual forecast. This afternoon, AAFC revised their wheat export target by 200,000 mt to 17.2 mmt, which may also prove conservative.

ALBERTA CROP REPORT

Alberta's bi-weekly crop report as of June 17 indicates that the province continues to deal with cool and wet conditions which are affecting plant development. The Good-to-Excellent rating for the cereal crops averages 78.3% as compared to 87.2% this time last year. The G/E rating for the canola crop was reported at 71%, below the 82.6% reported last year. Field peas are perhaps faring the best, at 82.5% G/E, although still below last year's 87.9%.

Looking at the crop ratings by region, the best conditions are found in the north east of the province, while the Central Alberta region is facing challenges due to dryness. The G/E rating for surface soil moisture in for Alberta averages at 77.9%, down from 83.6% the previous week. The Central region, in comparison, is indicating a 55.6% G/E rating for surface soil moisture, with 29.4% Fair and 12.4% Poor.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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