Canada Markets

Ontario is on the radar for many today, as this marks the day that Ontario residents head to the polls to choose their next ruling party and Premier. Also of interest is today's Ontario Field Crop Report, with the government making early projections of the switch from corn acres to soybean acres due to a combination of economics combined with the challenging conditions this spring as a result of excessive rainfall.

According to Statistics Canada, Ontario's corn acres remained steady at 2.225 million metric tonnes in 2013, after increasing each of the previous four years. The Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food (OMAF)has suggested that corn acres may have dropped 10 to 20% this spring from last year's acreage, likely moving the province's total acres below 2 million acres for the first time since 2010, when 1.955 acres were seeded.

As seen on the attached chart, the mid-point of the estimated range of cuts to corn acres equates to a 15% cut which would reflect acreage of 1.891 ma, an arbitrary choice to demonstrate the trend. This compares to Statistics Canada's March 31 estimate of 2.070 mmt, with a switch from corn to soybeans expected due to the relative economics of producing the two crops. Fellow DTN correspondent Phil Shaw, who farms in southwestern Ontario, reported by Twitter that his cut in corn acres was 30% while a neighbor reduced acres by 50%. This cut will be welcomed by many as the province's farmers have struggled with wide basis levels relative to their U.S. counterparts.

While Statistics Canada reported that Ontario growers would plant 2.8 ma of soybeans in its March acreage report, a jump of 12% or 300,000 acres from the 2.5 ma planted in 2013, OMAF reported today that acres will be well over 3 ma. The previous record acreage was set in 2012 when 2.590 ma were planted. The attached chart indicates a 3 ma crop for the sake of showing the divergence in corn and soybean acres in the province.

Soybean production, given 3 million seeded acres, an allowance for harvested acres and utilizing the five-year provincial average yield of 45.5 bpa would result in an estimated total production of 3.670 mmt, above the record 3.402 mmt produced in 2012.

Corn production, given 1.891 ma planted, an allowance for harvested acres and utilizing the five-year average yield of 154.5 bpa would result in an estimated total production of 7.295 mmt, a 19% drop from the record 9.007 mmt harvested in 2013.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

Follow Cliff Jamieson on Twitter @CliffJamieson

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