Canada Markets

Tuesday's release of the weekly Crop Progress report in the United States had a calming effect on the market and confirmed some of the pre-report estimates of planting progress. As of Sunday May 25, 88% of the corn had been planted, up from 73% the previous week and equal to the five-year average. News outlets' pre-report estimates ranged from 88% to 90% completion rate for the crop.

Soybean plantings across the U.S. were reported at 59%, up from 33% the previous week and ahead of the five-year average of 56%. In addition to the planting progress achieved, weather is favorable for crop development, which also acted to weigh on the markets.

The exception is the northern states, with today's focus on our neighbors to the south in North Dakota. The state is the northern fringe for U.S. corn acres, with the USDA Prospective Plantings report forecasting the state to plant 2.950 million acres, or 3.2% of the nation's total. As of Sunday May 25, 67% of this acreage had been planted, slightly behind last year's pace and below the 75% five-year average.

Feedback from producers has indicated some early seeded acres being re-planted due to seed planted in cold and wet soils, while the final date for full insurance coverage for corn in the state was May 25. The possibility of acres switched from corn to other crops such as wheat, soybeans or sunflowers may be growing, as further delays are inevitable due to forecasts for even more moisture in the days to come.

As of Sunday, 59% of the spring wheat had been planted, down slightly from last year and well below the five-year average of 73%. According to the Prospective Planting report, North Dakota is expected to plant 5.9 million acres, or 49% of the nation's spring wheat.

The state is also expected to plant 550,000 acres of durum, which represents 30.6% of the total 1.799 million acres grown in the country. As of Sunday, 37% of the acres were reported to have been planted, down from the 50% that was seeded this time last year and below the five-year average of 60%. As seen on the accompanying chart, progress in durum planting is one of the crops the furthest behind with planting progress at 23 percentage points behind the five-year average, as seen by the gap between the green line and the blue line.

Canola planting is ahead of last year's pace, with 45% of the acres planted as compared to 39% this time last year. This still remains well below the 63% five-year average.

Progress in flax and sunflower plantings are similar to the acreage planted as of the same date a year ago, but still remain well below the five-year average. North Dakota is forecast to plant 92% of the country's flax and 42% of the country's sunflowers.

The U.S. National Weather Service is currently indicating a system bringing moisture to the state over the next five days, with the heaviest moisture to fall in the southern and eastern regions of the state. The south-central area of the state is forecast to see as much as 4.5 inches given current forecasts, creating further negative implications for planting progress.

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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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(CZ)

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