Canada Markets

Deliveries

Wheat, durum and canola continue to see deliveries ahead of both last year and the three-year average. Wheat deliveries are 3.9% ahead of last year, while 15.3% ahead of the three-year average. Durum producer deliveries are 15.1% ahead of last year, while 17.6% ahead of the three-year average. Despite daily commentary that suggests producers are reluctant sellers of canola, canola deliveries are 1.6% ahead of 2011 and 17.6% ahead of the three-year average.

Three-year average delivery data shows canola deliveries flat through the five weeks from week 15 to 19, while this year's attractive prices have saw weekly deliveries increase 60% from week 15 through week 19, from 222,200 metric tons in week 15 to 356,800 mt in week 19.

Wheat deliveries seem to be following its seasonal pattern, where three-year average weekly delivery data indicates a plateau reached in week 17 before falling approximately 50% over the following four weeks. This year's data shows a high of 458,800 mt reached in week 18 with a sharp weekly drop in deliveries following in week 19.

Deliveries of peas, oats and barley lag both last year and the three-year average.

Exports

Both durum and barley exports are faring the best in comparison to recent years. Durum exports are 25.9% ahead of last year while 29.9% ahead of the three-year average. Barley exports are 50.5% ahead of last year and 25.3% ahead of the three-year average. Barley numbers may continue to stay strong, with a recent tweet indicating Richardson shipping their first 40-some-thousand mt vessel of barley out of Prince Rupert, which may not be included in week 19 data.

Wheat movement is 5.5% behind last year and 3.3% behind the three-year average. Canola movement is 8.9% behind last year although is 4.6% ahead of the three-year average.

The weakest export program to-date is that of peas, currently 22.5% behind last year and 17.8% ahead of the three-year average.

Visible Stocks

Stocks of grain in the commercial system are generally lower than at this time last year. In total, stocks within the system are 439,000 mt lower than at the same time last year. Durum stocks are 5.1% lower while barley stocks are 19% below last year, despite both crop's ability to maintain a more aggressive export program. Canola stocks are tighter than the industry is used to, currently 16.3% below last year and 15.3% below the three-year average. Canola stocks are, however, above 1 million metric tons, eliminating the current need for panic.

Total Disappearance

The attached chart indicates the total disappearance for 2012/13 as of week 19 as compared to the three-year average for the same time. Wheat, canola, durum and oats are maintaining their steady rate of disappearance, which puts movement ahead of the three-year average disappearance. Canola's increase is largely due to the build-up in crushing capacity, with domestic usage 23.7% ahead of last year and 43.6% ahead of the three-year average. Both wheat and durum are also enjoying an increase in domestic demand which are contributing to the overall disappearance

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@telventdtn.com

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