Ag Weather Forum

Drought is a major issue across large portions of the United States. Whether you look at the West, Rockies, Plains, South, or Southeast, the U.S. Drought Monitor is awash with color. Active weather has reduced drought in Texas, parts of Oklahoma, and through the Midwest; but the rest of the country needs rain.

A pair of storm systems will produce some needed relief during the next week. That will help some of those drought areas, but it will also come with severe weather and potential for a bit of snow.

A system in Canada has sent a front into the Central U.S. where it has stalled and will be producing scattered showers and thunderstorms for both May 15-16. Some of those storms will be severe and produce some heavy rain, but they will be more scattered, and largely fall across the Midwest, where drought conditions are absent.

However, a larger system is on the way and will come in a couple of pieces as it moves through the country this weekend through a good portion of next week.

That storm is already on the doorstep of the Pacific Northwest and will bring showers there Friday but especially on May 16-17. Showers there will not be very heavy but certainly welcomed as it has been drier in that part of the country as well.

That system will send one piece of energy quickly into the Northern Plains for Sunday, moving northeast into Ontario on May 18. Combining with the front already in the region, it should be able to bring up some good moisture into the Northern Plains that will spread through the Upper Midwest as well.

The secondary burst from the storm will then enter the Northern Plains on May 18 and follow the first impulse northeast into Ontario on May 19. That system will be strong enough to push a cold front slowly through the rest of the country early-to-mid next week, getting to the East Coast and Gulf Coast on May 20 or 21.

Every step along the way, there is potential for these two systems and front to produce areas of heavy rain. Where they overlap, higher totals should be expected. Areas like the eastern Dakotas, Nebraska, the Midwest, southeastern Plains, and Delta are all in line for amounts in the 1- to 3-inch range and could be more depending on thunderstorm development and persistence, as well as the speed of the front southward. Many of these areas would benefit including all of the Plains states, Delta, and Tennessee Valley. Flooding may be possible, but drought reduction looks more likely.

The front may not bring much precipitation to the southwestern Plains areas that are in deepening drought and where wheat and grasslands are having trouble with stress. However, winds behind the front are more likely to push up into the Rockies later next week. By doing so, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. They may not be as heavy or widespread as the precipitation elsewhere, but they will be possible. The only area of the country truly missed by the system will be the Southwest, which is typical.

To go along with the daily rain potential, there is also a daily severe weather threat. These two systems and the front will all be rather dynamic, with very warm and moist air ahead of them and very cold air filling in behind them. That contrast will spread the severe threat over widespread areas of the country each day through at least Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has extended severe weather chances through Tuesday, but that is the Day 5 forecast. It is rare for them to indicate areas beyond Day 4 unless there is a good deal of certainty. Most likely, as the days go on, the center will fill in severe threats for the rest of the week. You can find where these threats are each day from the SPC here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/….

As mentioned above, extremely cold air will be filling in behind the systems and front. Temperature changes of about 30-40 degrees Fahrenheit are looking likely in the Plains, going from high temperatures in the 80s down to the 40s and 50s for this weekend and early next week. Low temperatures could hit the freezing mark or below from the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains on Sunday and Monday, and down through western Nebraska and northeast Colorado Sunday on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well.

Low temperatures could hit the freezing mark or below from the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains from Sunday to Wednesday. Areas from western Nebraska and northeast Colorado could find those frost temperatures on Monday and Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday as well.

The cold air will also cause some of the rainfall in the Northern Plains to change over to snow on May 17-18. Accumulations are not likely to be heavy, but a couple of inches will be possible in some small areas where precipitation rates are heavy. A small area of western Nebraska and southeast Wyoming may also see snow mixing in on May 18.

Though the last of the low-pressure systems will depart through eastern Canada on May 20, additional disturbances will bring through more shower potential across the Northern Plains and Midwest later next week. Another trough of low pressure moving into the West for Memorial Day weekend should keep more active weather occurring through the end of May.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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