Ag Weather Forum

2025 was a roller-coaster year in Brazil coffee production. USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates that this year's Brazil coffee production will total 63 million 60-kilogram bags, according to the latest semi-annual report from the FAS (dated Dec. 2, 2025). That total is for the 2025-26 marketing year, which runs from July through June, and it's about 3% lower from the 2024-25 marketing year.

The most popular coffee variety, arabica, took a notable hit from harsh weather during the 2025 growing season. "Brazil continues to experience erratic and unpredictable weather patterns, characterized by drought, insufficient rainfall, and cold fronts that can lead to frost and hail on coffee farms in the main producing areas. As a result, a significant reduction in arabica coffee production is expected for the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest," the FAS report noted.

Brazil's arabica crop is forecast to be 13% lower than 2024-25. The less-popular coffee variety, robusta, fared better in its production cycle, which helped the overall Brazil coffee crop supply outlook. But supply concerns remain strong, and prices reflect those concerns. Details supplied by DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst Mitch Miller show that nearby coffee futures prices opened Jan. 2, 2025, at $3.21 per pound. During the calendar year, coffee futures reached a new record high of $4.3797 per pound on Oct. 23. And, as of Dec. 30, nearby coffee futures were trading at $3.57 per pound.

Dry conditions and possible heat stress on coffee trees and beans in Brazil's leading arabica-producing state of Minas Gerais are notable features as coffee trading adjusts following the turmoil created by U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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