Ag Weather Forum

It seems like not too long ago we were discussing the low water levels along the Mississippi River, but the pattern has since become more active, promoting an increase in water levels.

On Jan. 30, the Mississippi was 3.07 feet below gauge zero at Memphis, Tennessee. Gauge zero can be thought of as the normal level of the river. Since the end of January, the river level has been steadily rising at Memphis and as of Feb. 12 morning, it is 17.18 feet above gauge zero.

The weather pattern has been active across the Mississippi Delta this winter and it shows no signs of slowing down through the rest of February. Additionally, there's a risk for some of the Mississippi's tributaries to flood across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi this week.

The Mississippi River is forecast to peak near 22.8 feet above gauge zero early next week in Memphis; however, this is still not considered a flooding stage. Minor flooding for this location begins when the water level rises to 34 feet above gauge zero.

While the Mississippi River itself may not spill over its banks through the rest of this week or into early next week, its tributaries could.

One such instance is the White River in Arkansas, which runs 722 miles from northwest Arkansas into east-central Arkansas. Near Augusta, Arkansas, the White River was observed at 30.08 feet above gauge zero late Feb. 12 morning. The minor flood stage for this river starts at 26 feet while moderate flood stage is at 34 feet. Rounds of heavy rainfall this week have led to this river reaching minor flood stage and according to the National Weather Service, this portion of the White River may not dip below minor flood stage until Feb. 17 or 18.

The first of multiple rounds of rain this week moved through on Tuesday. Rainfall across eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi on Feb. 11 morning came in around 0.75 to 1.5 inches. Through Feb. 12, a second round of rain is expected across the Mississippi Delta that could lead to an additional 2-4 inches of rain across western Mississippi, northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas.

A short break in the rainfall is expected Feb. 13-14 for the Lower Mississippi but by Feb. 15, another system from the Southern Plains will drift east and provide swaths of heavy rain. The heavy rain could again target Arkansas but also extend into Kentucky and western Tennessee. Current model guidance suggests nearly 4-5 inches of rain could fall on Feb. 15 across western Tennessee into western Kentucky. The Missouri Bootheel could also get in on the action with nearly 2-4 inches of rain expected there. Parts of Arkansas could also see up to 3-4 inches of rain.

Looking out into next week, there are hints of another strong system moving through the Mississippi Delta, but is there an end in sight for this active pattern across the region as we head into spring?

DTN favors that precipitation will be slightly below average during March for the region and this ramps up a bit going into April. While the active pattern could slow down going into March and April for the Delta, we can't neglect the impact that the Ohio River Valley has on the Mississippi River.

During the past 60 days, precipitation across the Ohio River Valley showed some stark differences. For more southern areas of the basin, like Kentucky, precipitation has been close to 1-3 inches above average. However, just to the north in Ohio, there are pockets of below-average precipitation in the eastern side of the state while the rest of the state is nearly average.

I think Indiana and Ohio will be an important spot to watch as we head into the spring months of March to May as precipitation that falls across these states will have impacts on the Mississippi Delta's water levels.

Through March, April and May, DTN favors precipitation to be at or slightly above average through Indiana and Ohio. As we approach spring, we'll also likely see thawing and more groundwater runoff into the Ohio River that eventually feeds into the Mississippi. It will be worth keeping an eye on the Ohio River Valley during the next few months as the Mississippi Delta is already seeing an influx in precipitation, which could lead to even higher water levels later this spring.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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