Ag Weather Forum

This Christmas I had nostalgia for my childhood Christmases on my family's farm. Before presents could be opened, I always had to help feed the cattle on Christmas morning, and I remember all too many Christmases where we had piles of snow all over the farm. There would be a narrow path through the snow down to the barn. I would trudge through the snow with feed buckets or hay bales in hand. Occasionally, the cows would be all frosty or snow-covered. Those are some of my fondest memories and there's nothing quite like a quiet Christmas morning on the farm.

Fast forward to the present and I can't help but notice that the deep snow cover I remember as a child doesn't seem to be around as often. Maybe it's just my perspective since I'm taller now, but I was curious about snowfall amounts during the past 20 years across southwest Minnesota, where my family's farm is located.

Using the National Weather Service's NOWData climate tool at https://sercc.com/…, I found a weather observing site near Worthington, Minnesota, which was nearest to my family's farm. Since 2004, there hasn't been a noticeable trend in the recorded snow depths. From 2008 to 2010, the snow depths were the greatest, coming in at 19 inches in 2008, 24 inches in 2009 and 17 inches in 2010. After looking back on the observed snowfall depths, these three years could have been some of the years I was remembering.

After 2008 to 2010, 2013 and 2022 had 9 inches and 8 inches, respectively. However, there were certainly years interspersed from 2004 through 2024 that had zero for the snow depth. In fact, seven different years between 2004 and 2024 had a snow depth of zero on Christmas Day. Temperatures may have played a role in the minimal snow depth and even rainfall could have reduced it. For example, on Dec. 25, 2023, the observing site near Worthington recorded 0.61 inches of rainfall and it had a snow depth of zero.

My inner scientist was also curious if there were any trends to the data that I found. After plotting the year and its respective snow depth and applying a trend line, it did produce a slight downward trend. However, the downward trend in snow depths is not as strong as it might seem: 2008 to 2010 were anomalously high and skewed the data set quite a bit.

Another interesting aspect of this case involves looking at snow depths on one day of the year. Often, one day in the winter will not give you a full perspective on what happened during the entire winter. A more representative solution for why 2008-2010 had anomalously high snow depths could be explained by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is one of the weather patterns that meteorologists track by observing ocean temperatures in tropical areas of the Pacific Ocean. It has both warm and cold phases, which meteorologists have coined El Nino and La Nina, respectively. In the winter of 2008, there was a strong El Nino present that was followed by a weaker El Nino in the winter of 2009. By the winter of 2010, a strong La Nina was present.

Given the stronger El Nino and La Nina from 2008-2010, I think ENSO may have played more of a role in these snowier years that I remember as a child. I certainly cannot overlook climate change either as we continue to see global temperatures steadily rise; however, it's always important to know the difference between weather and climate. Climate takes place on a timescale of years while weather takes place in a matter of days. The weather I remember on each Christmas Day was just a snapshot in time, and even if I remember some very snowy Christmas Days when I was a child, I may have only remembered some of the snowiest ones.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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