Ag Weather Forum

The latest global climate report from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA/NCEI) shows the first 10 months of 2024 were the warmest on record across much of the world. North and South America, Europe, Africa and Oceania all had the warmest such period on record. The global January-October temperature was 2.30 degrees Fahrenheit (1.28 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-Century average. This ranks as the warmest January-October period on record.

For the month of October itself, the NOAA/NCEI report notes the global surface temperature was 2.38 deg F (1.32 deg C) above the 20th-century average of 57.2 deg F (14.0 deg C), making it the second warmest October on record, 0.09 deg F (0.05 deg C) below October 2023. Overall, it was the warmest October on record over global land areas. North America had its warmest October on record while South America and Oceania were second warmest. Approximately 12% of the world's surface had a record-high October temperature. Sea surface temperatures were above average over most areas, and the global ocean was the second warmest on record for October.

With these temperature details, the NCEI Global Annual Temperature Outlook now has a greater than 99% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record.

Regarding snow cover, the NOAA/NCEI report features a near-average snow cover in October over the Northern Hemisphere. In North America, snow cover was 330,000 square miles below average, while in Eurasia the snow cover was 230,000 square miles above average. Much of eastern Russia had above average snow cover and Canada had below average snow cover.

Sea ice is another matter. Global sea ice in October was the lowest in the 46-year record period. The sea ice extent, 8.68 million square miles, was 1.25 million square miles below the 1991-2020 average. The Arctic sea ice extent was below average (by 600,000 square miles), ranking fourth lowest on record. Antarctic sea ice extent was also below average (by 650,000 square miles), ranking second lowest on record.

Tropical cyclone activity in October was near average. The NOAA/NCEI report notes that 11 named storms occurred across the globe in October, a number which is near the 1991-2020 average. In the Atlantic basin, five tropical cyclones developed during October, including Hurricane Milton, which peaked as a Category 5 storm and made landfall just south of Tampa Bay, Florida. Through the end of October there have been 70 named storms worldwide, which is six less than the long-term average. In addition to Hurricane Milton, Super Typhoons Kraton and Kong-Rey occurred in the western Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Storm Trami caused flooding rains in the Philippines. While not related to tropical activity, very heavy rain in southern Spain caused extensive damage and more than 200 deaths in October.

The NOAA/NCEI October climate summary is available here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/…

Bryce Anderson

DTN Ag Meteorologist Emeritus

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