Ag Weather Forum

Mother Nature is doing her best to shut down the recent warmer air and remind us that winter is on its way. In most years, the first big wintry storm descends upon the Canadian Prairies in October. This year, it's in November, and it does look like it is going to be a significant one. Heavy snow and strong winds could combine to create blizzard conditions for the eastern half of the region.

The system has already started to produce snow in central Alberta. Some areas east of Calgary are finding heavy snow falling early in the day Nov. 18, and this will be a part of the event. Snowfall here is expected to total up to 15 centimeters (about 6 inches).

However, the true source of this storm is in the Central and Southern U.S. Plains. A potent storm there is racing northeastward and will get into Minnesota Monday night. The low-pressure center will continue to wrap up northward into Manitoba on Nov. 19 and linger into Nov. 20 before it essentially fades away.

The Alberta piece to the storm is going to provide some colder air that the system will work with, changing any rain over to snow Monday night or Tuesday. With the system stalling out in Manitoba, the areas most affected will be in eastern Saskatchewan through western Manitoba. Here, 15-30 cm (about 6-12 inches) of snow is in the forecast generally between Saskatoon and Winnipeg. And there could be some spots that see more. Adjacent areas across the border in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota may pick up measurable snow as well with up to 15 cm possible in patches.

To go along with the heavy snow, winds will be strong as the system moves into the areas, generally increasing on Tuesday and diminishing on Wednesday along with the snow. Winds will likely peak in the 60-80 kilometers per hour (about 35-50 miles per hour) range, causing plenty of blowing and drifting snow and potential for power outages to go along with intense travel hazards. That will make measuring the snow difficult to do accurately.

While probably not consistent enough to be a true blizzard, blizzard-like conditions will be possible from time to time in the heaviest bursts of snow.

This may be the first big storm, but there is potential for more to come through this weekend and also next week. Models are not at all consistent on these storms, but the potential is there for more heavy snow for the last week of the month.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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