DTN forecasters Jeff Johnson and Nathan Hamblin recently produced a webinar on the forecast for the winter 2018-19 season. A link to a playback of the webinar is at the end of this blog entry.
Some highlights from the webinar are:
A weak, central Pacific Ocean-focused El Nino is expected.
The primary storm track appears to be likely over the southern U.S.
Colder-than-normal temperatures are mostly likely from the north-central into the southeast U.S.
Winter chill will linger into March east of the Rockies.
Snowfall will be heavier than average in the western U.S. (possible moisture benefit in California), with slightly above-average snow in the north-central states into the Great Lakes. (This includes the Northern Plains through northern and western Midwest.)
Lighter precipitation is expected for the Ohio Valley into northern Texas. This affected area encompasses the Southern Plains and Delta.
Coastal storm risks will be slightly higher.
The Canadian Prairies look to be below average on winter precipitation.
The northwestern U.S. has variable precipitation prospects -- below average near the Canadian border and above average otherwise.
Takeaway items for me are:
If the forecasts for below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation verify, we could be looking at a slow start to fieldwork season 2019 over much of the northern and western Corn Belt.
Below-average precipitation and frequent periods of cold may be unfavorable for winter wheat in the Southern Plains.
Prospects for drought easing in the Northern Plains and western U.S. will be worth keeping track of. Every drop of moisture will be useful to ease this condition.
Here is the link for the webinar: https://goo.gl/…. Click on the big arrow in the lower left-hand corner to start the program.
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