Ag Weather Forum

We are paying close attention to the chance for frost or freeze conditions to develop during the next week in the Argentina wheat areas of southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces. This feature is by no means a certainty, but it is certainly noteworthy for several reasons:

1) The most seasonally-important feature is that wheat is going into its final reproductive stages. Mid-October in the southern hemisphere is the same as mid-April in Kansas. And, we know how a freeze in mid-April can harm wheat in the Plains.

2) Argentina's wheat crop estimate was lowered this week by the country's ag ministry to around 8.5 million metric tons. That's around 30 percent less than the most recent USDA estimate of 12 million tons. That reduction is attributed to dry conditions hindering crop development--but there were also fewer acres planted to wheat this season as well.

3) There has already been one freeze problem with wheat in South America this year--in Brazil. Cold weather back in July caused some crop loss in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which has forced Brazil into the world wheat market to meet its wheat needs. And, Brazil has indeed been a much bigger buyer of U.S. wheat than it typically is. A shorter crop in Argentina just adds to that imperative for Brazil to buy wheat from some other supplier.

Those are three compelling background elements for the market to bring in some weather premium for wheat this weekend. As of Friday morning October 18, there are two occasions showing up for frost possibilities in the southern Argentina wheat belt. They are early Monday morning October 21, and again early Thursday morning October 24. Both these occasions will bear close watching. Right now, the frost prospect looks to be quite low due to clouds and possible showers Sunday night into early Monday keeping the temperature from hitting the freeze mark; and for early Thursday, a lot of maritime (ocean) influence modifying the temperature. But, as we all know, if the conditions are right for even a short period of time, it doesn't take very long for frost to develop. So, this feature will keep the wheat market on its toes through the weekend and, depending on how conditions act, well into next week also.

Bryce

Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/CZ)

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