Ag Weather Forum

The weather has not been a major hindrance to remaining seeding operations across the Prairies during the recent week or two, but a few periods of rain have delayed farmers at times. Rain and briefly low temperatures have had some impact for crop emergence for some areas, but again the majority of the region has seen minimal impact. Some frost occurred across Manitoba where damage to early-emerged crops is still being assessed across the Interlake region.

May saw temperatures rebound considerably across the Prairies allowing for a much better start to the crop season than it first appeared. Temperatures for Alberta and Saskatchewan averaged 1.6 and 1.3 degrees C above normal, while Manitoba's readings came in at 0.4 degrees C below average.

May rainfall was variable across the three provinces with Alberta and western Saskatchewan totals averaging out to 125% of normal while some of the eastern Saskatchewan zones saw amounts of only a little more than 50% of normal. Rain totals for Manitoba were quite close to normal for a provincial average, but it tended to be wetter across the south and southeast and drier across the northwest crop zones where seeding progress has increased the greatest recently.

The wetter weather across the western provinces was mostly welcome, since this has been the region that saw soils start to dry after snow cover made an earlier exit than elsewhere. From eastern Saskatchewan to Manitoba, soil conditions are mostly favorable with dry areas not widespread. Current soil conditions along with expected seasonable temperatures should favor crop emergence during the next 10 days.

Low pressure developing across the central and eastern Prairies during the early weekend could drop locally heavy rains which may affect remaining seeding and early crop emergence, but a drier pattern is then expected to last well into next week. No major cold threats are foreseen through next week and heat does not appear to be in the picture either.

A couple of gentle shower episodes are expected during the middle and end of next week as low pressure areas race through the region. Longer-range computer model output does hint that a wetter pattern might envelope the region during the middle of June. This would be good news for some of the pockets with dry soils, but could have a negative impact on emerging crops if the wet weather becomes persistent and temperatures turn lower.

Doug Webster can be reached at doug.webster@telventdtn.com

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