Ag Policy Blog

President Donald Trump's deal with Europe could be a turning point in U.S. agricultural trade with the European Union, but the devil remains in dismantling decades of non-tariff barriers that are not fully defined in the agreement.

The EU is the fourth-largest overall market now for agriculture at $12.8 billion in export value, or roughly 7.3% of all agricultural exports. The problem with the EU is that agricultural exports to the EU were $12 billion in 1980. Sales have essentially stagnated at $12 billion to $13 billion for more than four decades.

In announcing the deal, the White House noted the agreement includes an effort to remove non-tariff barriers for U.S. agriculture exports. The deal does not fully resolve issues surrounding sensitive sectors like meat and dairy.

"The United States and the European Union intend to work together to address non-tariff barriers affecting trade in food and agricultural products, including streamlining requirements for sanitary certificates for U.S. pork and dairy products."

Non-tariff barriers, including some favorite European issues such as geographical indicators, have been the biggest source of gridlock for U.S. products for decades.

The Guardian reported, "Agriculture remains protected from U.S. imports that do not comply with EU rules. But the EU has eliminated tariffs on some agrifoods it cannot source itself including some nuts, some processed fish and pet food. It is also increasing the quota on bison allowed into the EU at a favored tariff."

Politico Europe reported, quoting an EU Commission source, that the EU will lower tariffs on what they consider "non-sensitive" agricultural goods from the United States, while "sensitive" agricultural imports will continue to face the current rates.

Indications are that U.S. nuts, pet food and bison could face easier entry into EU markets as "non-sensitive" agricultural goods, while U.S. beef -- considered "sensitive" -- will continue to face tariffs. However, negotiators are still negotiating over zero-to-zero tariffs and determining the placement of key agri-food goods, including spirits and wine, within the overall deal agreed by the leaders," Politico Europe stated.

The U.S. Grains Council (USGC) noted reports also say the EU has agreed to zero tariffs on some ag products, but the EU has not provided a list of specific commodities at this time. Previously, U.S. corn and sorghum have been held to a "floating tariff" that has calculated to be zero for the majority of the last five years.

"While we are eager to see the details, the Council thanks President Trump, the USDA and the USTR for continuing their tireless effort to bring about fair trade between the U.S. and the EU," said USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand.

ETHANOL SALES

The deal includes an agreement for the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy, including ethanol, over the next three years.

The Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy both praised the deal. The U.S. exported $420 million in ethanol to Europe in 2024.

In Europe, reports don't mention ethanol, but focus on more than tripling the imports of U.S. liquified gas and oil. There is also an acknowledgement that EU officials won't be in charge of buying fuel, but may have to offer incentives to help adjust infrastructure to handle a high volume of U.S. imports.

"In practice, experts say it's unworkable. For starters, hitting that target would require the EU to triple its U.S. energy imports, based on last year's figures, while asking American firms to divert all their energy flows worldwide toward the bloc -- and then some," Politico Europe noted.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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