Ag Policy Blog

OMAHA (DTN) -- U.S. Rep. Don Bacon's congressional district is the single swing Electoral College dot that could become pivotal if the presidential race comes down to the wire.

The congressional district sticks out because only Maine and Nebraska award Electoral College votes to the winner of individual districts. Republicans have pushed unsuccessfully for years to move to a winner-take-all format.

Nebraska's 2nd District also is one of 18 congressional districts that backed President Joe Biden in 2020 but is represented by a Republican. The same district slightly favored Donald Trump in 2016 when Bacon won his first term.

The pivotal nature of the district is one reason Bacon finds himself in another close battle against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who Bacon defeated 52%-48% two years ago. The Omaha airwaves are flooded with outside ads attacking and touting the pair.

Bacon also serves on the U.S. House Agriculture Committee.

The House Ag Committee may have more competitive races among its membership than any other committee in Congress. Political analysts who track congressional elections show nine House Aggies -- five Republicans and four Democrats -- are in races scored by analysts as "toss-ups" because of tight polling.

Another seven House Ag members -- six Democrats and one Republican -- are in races in which polling and history may lean in their direction, but the races are by no means safe.

The House Ag Committee has 54 members -- 29 Republicans and 25 Democrats.

The breakdowns on these races come from the latest updates from Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virgina's Center for Politics. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball agree on most races but have different takes on a few of them.

NATIONAL COMPETITIVE RACES

Fewer than 10% of the 435 House seats fall in the "toss-up" or "leaning" ratings. Cook Political Report forecasts 42 competitive seats -- evenly split at 21 seats for each party. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball lists 43 close races -- 22 Democrats and 21 Republicans.

Of course, there's always a couple of wildcards once the votes are counted.

The House currently has 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats and four open seats. Sabato lists 191 Republican and 175 Democratic districts as safe for their party hopefuls. Cook has 192 districts as solid GOP and 174 districts as solid Democratic.

FIVE GOP AGGIE TOSS-UP RACES

Four of the toughest races for House Ag Republicans involve freshmen.

-- Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd District. The Bacon-Vargas race is close enough that Cook lists the district as a toss-up, while Sabato lists it as leaning Democratic.

-- Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Oregon 5th District. A freshman, Chavez-DeRemer is a former mayor in the district but holds a seat that was once strongly Democratic. Chavez-DeRemer said in a debate this week she has worked across the aisle in her first term. She is facing Janelle Bynum, a member of the Oregon State Legislature.

-- John Duarte, California 13th District. Another freshman in the San Joaquin Valley, Duarte is a farmer who battled the Army Corps of Engineers over a wetland ruling. His district is heavily agricultural but also holds no strong leaning to either party. He has a rematch against former California State Assemblyman Adam Gray, who Duarte beat by just 564 votes in 2022.

-- Marc Molinaro, New York 19th District. A freshman, Molinaro is trying to hold on to a seat that keeps flipping. He lost a 2022 special election, then turned around and won it, narrowly beating his current opponent, Democrat Josh Riley, a lawyer and former Hill staffer. Molinaro defeated Riley with 50.8% of the vote last time.

-- Zach Nunn, Iowa 3rd District. Nunn is another freshman who won by 2,000 votes in 2022 in a central district dominated by Des Moines and its suburbs. Nunn faces Lanon Baccam who served as a USDA deputy undersecretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services during the Obama administration. Both men also have military records. Baccam served eight years as a combat engineer in the Iowa National Guard, including serving in Afghanistan. Nunn is a colonel in the U.S. Air Force Reserve after serving two decades active duty in the Air Force. Cook lists the race as a toss-up, while Sabato lists leans Republican.

FOUR DEM AGGIE TOSSUP RACES

Three freshmen and one open seat highlight some of the closest Democratic districts.

-- Yadira Caraveo, Colorado 8th District. Caraveo is a freshman who represents parts of the Denver suburbs up to Greeley, Colorado. She won her seat by 1,632 votes last time. Caraveo is a pediatric doctor and served in the Colorado House before winning her seat. She faces State Rep. Gabe Evans, a former police officer and Army helicopter pilot who owns a farm in Weld County. Caraveo is the daughter of Mexican immigrants, while Evans is the grandson of Mexican immigrants.

-- Don Davis, North Carolina 1st District. A graduate of the Air Force Academy and a college professor, Davis is a freshman running in a redrawn district that is more rural in northeast North Carolina. He faces retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, who is running her first campaign.

-- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Washington 3rd District. Gluesenkamp Perez is a freshman trying to hold a district that leans Republican. She beat Republican Joe Kent in 2022 by just over 2,600 votes, and they are in a rematch. Kent is a retired Army Special Forces veteran.

-- Elissa Slotkin, Michigan 7th District. Slotkin is running for U.S. Senate, leaving an open seat in the central Michigan district.

ONE GOP AGGIE LEANS

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, Wisconsin 3rd District. A freshman and retired Navy Seal, Van Orden represents mostly southwestern parts of the state that run purple. Van Orden won in 2022 with 51.8% of the vote. In his two years, he has pushed to join the ranks of the most conservative members of Congress. Just this week, he also received a "Friend of Farm Bureau" award. Van Orden faces Rebecca Cooke, who was raised on a dairy farm, runs a nonprofit for women going into business and works as a waitress. This is a race of polar opposites.

SIX DEM AGGIE LEANS

-- Angie Craig, Minnesota 2nd District. Craig is seeking her fourth term in a district representing the southern suburbs of the Minneapolis metro area. She faces Joe Teirab, a former county and federal prosecutor.

-- Jahana Hayes, Connecticut 5th District. Hayes is seeking her fourth term. She is in a rematch against former state Sen. George Logan who Hayes narrowly defeated in 2022.

-- Marcy Kaptur, Ohio 9th District. Kaptur is the longest-serving congresswoman in Congress and is seeking her 22nd term in office. She faces state Rep. Derek Merrin.

-- Eric Sorensen, Illinois 17th District. Sorensen is a freshman and former TV weatherman in northwest Illinois. He faces Joe McGraw, a retired judge and prosecutor.

-- Gabe Vasquez, New Mexico 2nd District. Another freshman in the southern New Mexico district. Vazquez faces former Rep. Yvette Herrell, who lost to Vasquez by 1,300 votes in 2022.

-- Abigail Spanberger, Virginia 7th District. Spanberger has held the swing seat for three terms but is stepping aside to run for governor next year.

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Cook Political Report: https://www.cookpolitical.com/…

Sabato's Crystal Ball: https://centerforpolitics.org/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN

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