Ag Policy Blog

OMAHA (DTN) -- Farm leaders from opposite sides of the aisle agree the country needs a new farm bill, but they are split on taxes, regulations, trade policies and just how farmers and the agricultural economy will fare under the next presidency.

The Farm Foundation on Monday hosted a live-streamed forum at the National Press Club to look at farm policy differences between the presidential candidates. The event touched on a wide range of issues, including trade, the farm bill, tax policy, China, climate-smart programs and nutrition.

The forum offered an amicable policy debate leading up to Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump's debate scheduled for Tuesday evening.

Speaking for former President Trump's campaign was Kip Tom, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture. Tom, an Indiana farmer, is co-leader of the Farmers and Ranchers for Trump 47 coalition.

Citing statistics from a conservative business group, Tom said the Biden-Harris administration has imposed $1.6 trillion in new regulations that are costing the American economy and costing farmers. Talking about inflation, Tom said, "Kamala Harris needs to look no further for price gouging than to look in the mirror at herself."

Standing in for Vice President Harris' campaign was Rod Snyder, former senior adviser for agriculture at EPA under the Biden administration, and former staff member of the National Corn Growers Association and CropLife.

Referring to the first Trump term in which the average net farm income was one-third less than it was under Biden, Snyder said farmers lost $29 billion in exports during the trade war in 2018 and 2019.

"The four years of the Trump presidency was defined by chaos and uncertainty for the farm economy, and a second term would be even more severe."

TRADE

Trade was a major topic with agriculture now looking at a $30.5 billion trade deficit for fiscal-year 2024 as exports are projected to finish the fiscal year at $173.5 billion while imports are forecast at $204 billion. The agricultural trade deficit is projected to widen to $42.5 billion for fiscal-year 2025 as well.

Tariffs are a key to Trump's trade policies. He has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. Trump said those tariffs would generate more federal revenue that would be used to pay down the budget deficit.

Harris so far has said little on trade policy but seems in line with President Joe Biden by focusing more on protecting manufacturing and labor, but no specific negotiations for broader trade agreements. Like Biden, she largely would hold the current tariffs on China in place.

Snyder noted taxpayers had to pick up the bill for $23 billion in support payments to farmers during the first China trade war. Citing Trump's current proposals, Snyder said, "There's no question the type of retaliatory behavior that would come from other countries in terms of market access for farmers." Snyder added an expert told him, "The impacts of that could make the 1980s farm crisis look like a picnic in terms of the way the markets could dry up overnight because of those tariffs."

Tom pointed to the Trump administration's Phase 1 agreement with China that boosted sales to $38 billion -- during the early part of Biden's term. He cited negotiations with Japan and other countries to expand agricultural access under Trump.

"They left agriculture in good shape when they left their offices," Tom said. He added, "We've had no trade deals under the Harris administration -- none."

Later Tom said the U.S. is relying on highly subsidized imports from China, and the Biden administration left in place a lot of the earlier Trump tariffs.

"The reality is those tariffs will be out there. There's no question Trump wants to deal with them. He took care of us before when he did it originally, and he will take care of us this time too."

Tom said Trump's administration negotiated a high number of trade deals to increase access to foreign markets while those talks have not happened under Biden's team. Snyder pointed to more access for ethanol to Japan and the Biden trade negotiators opening Mexico for potatoes for the first time in decades. Snyder said relying on tariffs is unsustainable. "The American consumer pays for that," he said.

TAX POLICY

The 2017 tax cuts pushed by former President Trump and signed into law will start to phase out at the end of 2025. Tom said one of the biggest risks to farmers under Harris would be a change in the "death tax," as the estate-tax exemption could be lowered and more farmers would be caught up in it because of higher land values.

"It can be the most undermining issue taking away farmers and ranchers as we know them today," Tom said.

Tom said the Harris administration is proposing to take away stepped-up bases and tax unrealized net gains.

"We're talking about increasing the tax on corporations from 20% to 28%. Some are wanting to go down to 15%," Tom said.

Snyder said Trump's tax cuts largely benefited the top 1% of Americans and would add $4.6 trillion to the national debt if given a full extension.

"The vast majority of that benefit did go to the top 1% earners of the United States. That's not your average farmer across the country or rural residents," Snyder said.

On the estate tax, Snyder said proposed changes would not affect middle-class farmers. "We're really talking about 1% of farmers, not the average farmers across the country, that would be impacted."

LABOR, DEPORTATIONS

Agriculture relies heavily on migrant labor with studies showing a high percentage of workers may be in the country illegally. Farmers also have increasingly turned to the H-2A guest-worker program, which now brings in more than 300,000 workers a year.

While Trump has pushed for more aggressive deportations, Tom said he did not think that would have a major ripple effect on agricultural and food processors such as meatpacking plants.

"I'm not worried about them being raided and losing their workforce, but we do have an illegal immigration problem that needs to be resolved," Tom said.

Snyder noted Congress has repeatedly attempted bipartisan agricultural labor bills that have been blocked by Republicans in Congress. "I think largely our friends on the right have torpedoed that because they really don't want to solve the problem," he said.

CLIMATE, GREEN POLICIES

Tom said farmers are already using less chemicals and fertilizer and improving the air and water quality. Tom suggested he doesn't support the Biden administration's climate-smart funding.

"We don't get caught up in gimmicks, cute names, anything like that." Tom added, "I don't think this is any role the government needs to be playing in. I think it's up to us farmers to do this in the private sector."

Snyder said the federal government plays a critical role in helping fund conservation practices and boosting support for programs to create Sustainable Aviation Fuel and accelerate demand. He also said climate-smart programs at USDA are voluntary and have generated a high volume of demand from producers. "This is about voluntary, incentive-based programs that can help meet the market demand."

USDA first provided $3.2 billion in climate-smart grants for more than 140 projects nationally. Then the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, adding $19.5 billion to be spent by USDA's traditional conservation programs by 2031. Snyder said, "These voluntary programs have been a tremendous success story."

Tom countered that a lot of the money was going to non-governmental entities, and not farmers. "The reality is I don't think any of this has made it to the farm gate."

FARM BILL

Both Snyder and Tom agreed with farm groups that Congress needs to pass a farm bill as quickly as possible and not wait until the next administration to get it done. "American agriculture wants Congress to get this done as quickly as possible," Snyder said.

Tom agreed that a farm bill needs to be passed "the sooner the better," adding that farmers right now face several years of surplus crops and lower prices "all because of the lack of trade under the Biden-Harris administration."

The full two-hour forum will be posted on the Farm Foundation's website: https://www.farmfoundation.org/….

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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