Ag Policy Blog

Amid suggestions from the Canadian government that the Trump administration could continue pushing to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement, the American Farm Bureau Federation released a breakdown of commodity sales for 48 states under the trade agreement.

The report looks at 2016 exports, showing Canada and Mexico accounted for $2,65 billion in U.S. corn exports, or roughly 27% of all corn exports, dominated largely by $2.5 billion in sales to Mexico. NAFTA sales accounted for 95% to 100% of corn exports in Plains states such as Kansas, Nebraska, South and North Dakota.

Soybeans

Mexico was the second largest market for U.S. soybean sales in 2016 at $1.5 billion. While soybean exports are dominated by shipments to China, sales to NAFTA countries represented 7% of U.S. soybean exports. Again, Plain states dominated those sales, though 88% of Missouri soybean exports, 60% of Michigan soybean exports, 55% from Iowa and 54% from Mexico.

Wheat

Mexico accounted for $611 million in wheat exports in 2016, making it the top U.S. market, followed by Japan. Canada accounted for $18 million in wheat sales (and this is an issue worth negotiating over because Canada discounts U.S. wheat). Combined, NAFTA accounted for 12% of U.S. wheat exports in 2016. Roughly 955 of Nebraska wheat exports went to NAFTA countries, as did 95% of Montana exports, 99% of Colorado exports, and 58% of California's wheat exports as well.

Fruit and Vegetables

While commodities get most of the attention, Canada and Mexico combined to import $5.5 billion in U.S. fruits and vegetables in 2016, accounting for nearly 50% of U.S. fruit and vegetable exports. More than half of all states sold 50% or more of their fruit and vegetable exports into the NAFTA market.

Dairy

Clearly a bone of contention with Canada and its supply-management system, the U.S. still exported $631 million in dairy products to Canada last year and $1.2 billion to Mexico. The NAFTA partners accounted for more than 38% of all U.S. dairy exports. Montana sends100% of its dairy exports to NAFTA countries while Texas sends 85% of its dairy exports to Mexico or Canada. New York, a big dairy producing state, sends 52% of its dairy exports to a NAFTA country while Wisconsin sends 49%

Live animals, beef, pork and poultry

Beef exports to Canada and Mexico in 2016 accounted for more than $1.3 billion, or more than 24% of all U.S. beef and veal exports. Northern plains states sent high percentages of beef to NAFTA partners.

Pork exports last year reached $1.9 billion, or nearly 40% of all pork exports by the U.S. Western states nearly all sent a high percentage of their pork exports to NAFTA countries.

Poultry exports to Mexico were $1.1 billion and $663 million to Canada (again, supply management is a negotiating issue with Canada). They represented 39% of all poultry exports.

Livestock exports overall from the U.S. were $697 million in 2016, with Mexico and Canada each accounting for $129 million in live animals coming from the U.S.

The full Farm Bureau report and maps can be found at https://www.fb.org/…

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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