Technically Speaking
Monthly Analysis: Energy Markets
Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $49.06, up $2.02 on the monthly chart. The market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend. Next resistance is the August 2016 high of $51.22, then the June 2016 high of $52.86. Beyond that the target is $60.83, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $128.40 (March 2012) through the low of $27.10 (January 2016).
Crude Oil: The spot-month contract closed at $48.24 up $3.54 on the monthly chart. The market remains in a major (long-term) uptrend. Next resistance is the August 2016 high of $48.75, then the June 2016 high of $51.67. Beyond that the target is $59.96, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $114.83 (May 2011) through the low of $26.05 (February 2016).
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Distillates: The spot-month contract closed at $1.5279, up 11.77cts on the monthly chart. Next resistance is the August 2016 high of $1.5324, then the June 2016 high of $1.5848. Beyond that the target is $1.6883, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.3700 (January 2014) through the low of $0.8487 (January 2016).
Gasoline: The spot-month contract closed at $1.4874, up 7.52cts on the monthly chart. Similar to the oil markets, RBOB gasoline remains in a major (long-term) 5-Wave uptrend. Wave 2 looks to have bottomed with the September low of $1.2668, a test of support at $1.2870. This price marks the 50% retracement level of Wave 1 from the low of $0.8975 (February 2016) through $1.6664 (May 2016).
Ethanol: The spot-month contract closed at $1.547, up 13.2cts on the monthly chart. Though the market looks to be in a trading range, the major (long-term) trend remains up. Initial resistance is pegged at $1.712, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $3.07 (July 2011) through the double-bottom low of $1.292 (January 2015 and January 2016). The June 2016 high was $1.739.
Natural Gas: The spot-month contract closed at $2.906, up 1.9cts on the monthly chart. While the major (long-term) trend remains up, monthly stochastics remain near the overbought level of 80%. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at $2.979, a price that marks the 33% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.72 (January 2014) through the low of $1.611 (March 2016).
Propane (Conway cash price): Conway propane closed at $0.500, up 12.50cts on its monthly chart. The major (long-term) trend is up with resistance at $0.5428. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $1.4825 (December 2013) through the low of $0.2525 (January 2016). Monthly stochastics are bullish below the overbought level of 80%.
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