Fundamentally Speaking

War, ideas of an upcoming favorable ruling on biodiesel production, large fund buying and hopes of additional old crop soybean sales to China have all driven soybean futures to new two-year highs.

So many moving pieces but this post focuses on the latest USDA export projection of 1.575 billion bushels (bb) given in the March 2026 WASDE report, unchanged from the February figure.

There has been speculation that heading into the scheduled meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents next month that China may purchase some additional U.S. soybeans, though perhaps not the 8.0 million metric tons (mmt) that has been bandied about.

Note however that even before this recent surge in soybean values, U.S. prices were very uncompetitive vis-a-vis the latest Brazilian offers and over the past month the price disparity has widened significantly.

This chart shows U.S. export sales and shipments as of the first week in March as a percent of the USDA's March WASDE estimate on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the fight-hand axis is new crop sales also as of the first week in March as a percent of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum estimates given in late February.

Also plotted is the percent change in old crop soybean exports from the March WASDE to the final export estimate.

Thursday's (03/12/2026) export sales report as of the first week of March showed 1.341 bb of soybeans sold and 976 mb shipped.

This is the second lowest number of exports sold at this point in the marketing year since the 2012/13 season and the smallest amount shipped since the year prior.

The amount sold is 85.1% of the latest WASDE projection, the third lowest since the 2006/07 marketing year and just 63.3% shipped, also the third lowest total at least since 2000.

The two years where the pace of sales and shipments were even lower was in the 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons where the U.S. and China were in the midst of a huge trade war.

The March 2019 WASDE export projection of 1.875 bb was ultimately lowered by 6.5% in the final report and a year later the March 2020 WASDE projection of 1.825 bb was lowered down to 1.683 bb for the final figures just for reference.

Though its early, new crop sales for the 2026-27 season are a mere 7.7 mb, the lowest figure for early March since the 2008/09 season and are just 0.5% of last month's USDA export projection of 1.70 bb given at the annual Ag Outlook Forum.

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