Fundamentally Speaking

Corn futures are now trading at the lowest levels since right after Labor Day, though the market did well to hold in at the key $4.14 area for the December 2025 contract despite what we see as a bearish September 1 stocks figure of 1.532 billion bushels (bb).

This is well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 bb and even the high end of trade estimates near 1.450 bb.

This chart shows the percent that the USDA's September 1 corn in all stocks estimate deviated from the average trade estimate on the left-hand axis where we also report the percent change in the USDA's old crop U.S. corn ending stocks estimate from the September to October WASDE reports.

Plotted on the right-hand axis is the percent of Sep 1 corn stocks stored on farm.

As noted, Tuesday's USDA 9/1 corn stocks projection of 1.532 bb is 14.6% above the average trade estimate of 1.337 bb, the largest understatement by the trade since a 21.0% miss in 2013 with large negative deviations seen both in 2010 and 2011 also.

It is now assumed that in the October 2025 WASDE (if the government shutdown is resolved), the USDA will post a 2024/25 ending corn stocks number at 1.532 bb vs. the 1.325 bb figure given earlier this month which would be a 15.6% increase.

This would be the largest percent increase from the Sep to Oct report for old crop corn since 2013 of 24.7%.

Should the $4.14 support area for the December contract be taken out, the market could be in position to test the August 12 contract low of $3.92 now knowing the extra 207 mb found Tuesday equates to another 2.3 bushels per acre (bpa) on top of the current estimate of 186.7 bpa.

Not particularly good news for U.S. farmers that as of the beginning of the month were holding 643.2 mb of old crop corn which is the third highest percent of total Sep 1 corn stocks over the past twenty seasons.

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