Fundamentally Speaking

Mid-July Soybean Crop Ratings for Top States

Joel Karlin
By  Joel Karlin , DTN Contributing Analyst

First wheat at contract lows, then corn, and now it appears that the soy complex has given up the ghost.

This week's dome of death appears to be more fluff than substance as readings, albeit the highest in four years throughout the Midwest, were not as extreme as had been forecasted, while precipitation was quite ample this past week.

Meanwhile the forecast for the next two weeks looks favorable as soybeans continue to progress through their critical flowering and pod-setting stage.

Whether it is the 2nd highest national crop ratings since 1994, sentiment that the much feared La Nina event could be a bust or signs that Chinese soybean import demand may be far less than projected, soybeans and soybean meal in particular have taken quite a beating.

In this piece we look at the individual 18 states that make up the national soybean crop rating using our usual ratings system where we weight the crop based on the percent in each category and assign that category a factor of 2 for very poor, 4 for poor, 6 for fair, 8 for good, and 10 for excellent and then sum the results.

These ratings are for week 28, which is the past Sunday. Reported are the 2016 rating, the average week 28 rating for the period 1986-2015 (with the exception of ND and WI where the average goes from 2000 to 2015) and finally where each state's current crop rating ranks from 1986-2016 (with 1 being the highest ranking and 31 the lowest).

First off we note that with the exception of Michigan and South Dakota, two states that also had 2016 corn ratings below their respective 30 year averages along with Kansas, all other 15 states have 2016 crop ratings as of mid-July above their respective 30 year averages with LA, MO and WI doing especially well.

Interestingly, despite current national conditions among the best in 22 years, only Wisconsin has a crop rating that is the highest since the current condition report format started in 1986, though a number of states including IN, LA, MN, MO and TN have their fourth best rating ever for this time of year.

This suggests that the general soybean crop in the U.S. is doing quite well and more states have week 28 crop ratings in the top 20% of the past 30 years of ratings than corn offering further evidence that the 2016 U.S. soybean crop has record yield potential.



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