Canada Markets

Statistics Canada reported an increase in both merchandise exports and imports during the month of February, with Canada's trade surplus with the world rising from $608 million to $1.4 billion and the largest surplus reported in four months.

The surge in exports in February resulted in a 9.7% increase for the broad farm, fishing and intermediate food product exports during the month to $5.1208 billion, the highest seen in 10 months although down 12.3% from February, 2023. Statistics Canada noted a 27% surge in wheat exports, particularly to Asia, along with a 12.9% increase in other crops, highlighting barley shipments to China.

The following is a look at miscellaneous trade data as it pertains to select crops and products.

Canadian exporters shipped 103,474 metric tons (mt) of lentils in February, the smallest volume shipped in six months. Of this volume, the largest share was sent to India at 41% of the total volume, with the United States and Columbia the next largest. Total crop-year exports of 1.065 million metric tons (mmt) are down 24.2% from a year ago, while down 13.4% from the five-year average. Total exports have reached 2/3 of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) forecast exports of 1.6 mmt, while ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Chickpea exports totaled 19,555 mt, up from the previous month. Measured in the value of exports, the largest share was sent to Turkey at 38.6% of the total. Cumulative exports at 133,839 mt are up 8.7% from one year ago and 72.5% higher than the five-year average. Exports have reached 99% of AAFC's crop year target of 135,000 mt, while on the verge of surpassing this forecast.

Canadian shippers moved 426,063 mt of dry peas during February, the largest volume shipped in five months. By far the largest share was shipped to India, or 47.5% of the total volume shipped. Cumulative volume shipped at 2.022 mmt is up 82.9% from one year ago and 9.9% higher than the five-year average. Exports have reached 84% of the current AAFC forecast at 2.4 mmt, which was revised 100,000 mt higher in March, while well-ahead of the forecast pace.

Statistics Canada reported 19,548 mt of canary seed sold in February, the largest monthly volume shipped in over two years. Measured in dollar value, 37% was shipped to Belgium, with a lower 24.3% shipped to Mexico. During the seven months of the crop year, exports total 67,686 mt has been shipped, down 25% from one year ago and 23% behind the five-year average. To date, 54% of the crop year total has been achieved, slightly behind the pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast.

Mustard exports in February totaled 7,691 mt, up from the previous month while low when compared to this month over the past 10 years. Measured in the total dollar value exported, 61% was shipped to the U.S. while the next largest destination was Belgium at 13.9%. Cumulative exports at 51,600 mt are down 30.2% from one year ago and down 22% from the five-year average, while behind the pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast.

Soybean exports in February totaled 341,399 mt, down for a second month, the smallest volume shipped in five months while the largest February volume in at least 10 years. After six months of the row crop crop year, exports total 3.824 mmt, up 8.3% from one year ago and 15.6% higher than the five-year average. Exports have reached 78% of AAFC's 4.9 mmt forecast, while ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Corn exports were minimal for a second month, with 56,004 mt exported, up from the previous month. Measured in value of sales, 55% was shipped to Ireland and 44% was shipped to the U.S. during the first half of the crop year. Cumulative exports of 617,137 is 30% behind the same period last crop year while 4.2% higher than the five-year average for this period. This volume has reached roughly one-third of the government's export forecast, while behind the steady pace needed to reach this forecast of 1.85 mmt.

Corn imports totaled 219,080 mt in February, the lowest monthly volume imported this crop year. Cumulative imports total 1.759 mmt, up 115% from the same period a year ago and 34.2% above the five-year average. This follows an upward revision of 200,000 mt in AAFC's March estimates, with a forecast of crop year imports at 2.7 mmt with the current pace ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this volume.

Canola oil exports totaled 263,047 mt in February, up from the previous month. Crop year exports of 1.9 mmt are 9.2% higher than one year ago and 11.5% higher than the three-year average.

Soymeal exports totaled 513,493 mt, the highest monthly volume shipped since March 2021, or almost three years. Cumulative exports of 3.273 mmt are up 5% from one year ago and 13.4% higher than the three-year average.

Statistics Canada reports 177 million litres of ethanol imported in February, down sharply from the previous month. Over the first two months of 2024, imports are up 17.7% from one year ago and are 68.7% higher than the three-year average.

Imports of biodiesel totaled 25,853 mt in February, up sharply from the previous month. During the first two months, imports total 38,065 mt, up 40% from a year ago and 4.2% below the five-year average.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com

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