DTN Oil Update
Oil Futures Drop on Month and Quarter as OPEC Hike Looms
SECAUCUS, N.J. (DTN) -- Oil prices fell for a second straight month and quarter on Tuesday, Sept. 30, amid concerns over a looming OPEC production hike and a decline in U.S. consumer confidence.
The return of more than 200,000 bpd of northern Iraqi supply to the export market after a 2-1/2-year suspension also kept the market on tenterhooks.
In crude oil, NYMEX-traded WTI for November delivery settled down $1.08 at $62.37 bbl. For the month, WTI was down 2.5% loss, extending August's decline of nearly 8%. For the third quarter, it fell 2.7%, extending the 9% drop in the March to June period.
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ICE Brent for November delivery retreated 94 cents to $67.03 bbl. For the month, Brent slid 1.6%. For the third quarter, it lost almost 1%.
Among oil products, October RBOB gasoline futures slid $0.232 to $1.9729 gallon, and the front-month ULSD contract fell $0.0241 to $2.3325 gallon.
The U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.78, down 0.17 points against a basket of foreign currencies.
After a brief rally last week due to geopolitical tensions and on mounting sanctions against Russian oil, crude prices tumbled again from Monday as reports emerged that OPEC was considering another production quota increase for November.
Delegates from the 10-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies from 10 other oil producing countries -- known collectively as OPEC+ -- will convene Sunday, Oct. 5, to decide, amid reports that their total quotas might rise by 500,000 bpd over the next three months.
The International Energy Agency anticipates that supply additions from non-OPEC members alone are likely to outpace global demand growth this year and next. The speed with which the enlarged OPEC+ group has returned barrels to the market so far this year has already had analysts expecting higher global oil inventories in the fourth quarter and throughout next year.
Still, given OPEC's waning spare production capacity over the past six months, actual supply increases are likely to miss their lofty targets.
In the United States, retail regular gasoline prices fell in the week ended Sept. 29, after declines in the Midwest and East Coast as of Monday, Sept. 29, Energy Information Administration data released this morning showed.
The national average for retail regular gasoline fell by 5.5cts to $3.118 gallon week-on-week and was 6.1cts lower from the same week in 2024. The national average price for retail diesel fuel inched higher for a second consecutive week, rising 0.5cts to $3.754 gallon. That was still 21cts above the pricing from a year earlier, the EIA stated.
The bearish sentiment in the oil market was supported also by the drop in U.S. consumer confidence for September. The key index slid 3.6 points to 94.2 from a revised 97.8 in August, according to data from the Conference Board reported this morning.
