Weekly exports of all grains from Canada's licensed facilities dipped by 33.7% in week 45 or the week ended June 14 to 572,000 metric tons (mt), the lowest weekly shipments in 18 weeks. This volume is below the same week in 2018-19 (grey line) and the three-year average (brown line). The linear trend points lower for the balance of the crop year (week 45 through week 52), both in 2018-19 data and the three-year average weekly data.
This week's wheat exports, at 322,600 mt, was the lowest weekly volume shipped in six weeks, while canola shipments of 80,300 mt was the lowest weekly volume shipped since week six, making the assumption that the 269,400 mt reported for week 22 was shipped evenly over the week 20-22 period.
A quick look at licensed terminal inventory as of week 45 shows 1.0263 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat in storage, up 3.4% from the same week last year but 6.8% below the five-year average. Durum stocks are reported at 298,500 mt in storage terminals, down 6% from last year and 7.9% below the five-year average. Canola stocks of 330,100 mt are up 9% from 2018-19 and 18% higher than the five-year average and may signal firm exports prior to the end of the crop year. When total stocks of all grains are considered, inventory is reported at 2.1 mmt, down 13.3% from the same week in 2018-19 and 3% below the five-year average.
In advance of the June AAFC supply and demand estimates, which could be released at any time, wheat exports seem on track to reach the current May forecast. Over the past five years, an average of 80.3% of total wheat exports were realized as of the week 45 licensed exports report by the CGC. The range over the five years is tight, from roughly 79% of total exports to 82% of total exports. This average pace projects forward to crop year exports of 18.5 mmt of wheat, higher than the current 18 mmt forecast.
Over this same period, an average of 83.5% of durum exports have been reported in week 45 cumulative shipments over the past five years. This pace would project forward to total crop-year exports of 5.3 mmt, which is also higher than the current forecast of 4.9 mmt.
Over the five years in question, licensed canola exports as of week 45 have averaged 85.4% of total crop year exports, a pace that projects forward to 10.053 mmt, higher than the current 9.6 mmt forecast. This could support a potential upward revision in forecast exports when the June report is released.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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