Fundamentally Speaking

U.S. corn export sales and shipments as of the first week of February as a percentage of the February WASDE projection along with those sales as a percent of the final USDA export projection vs. change in the U.S. corn export projection from the February WASDE to the...

Change in the February WASDE U.S. ending corn, soybean, and wheat stocks from what was estimated a year earlier at their Feb USDA Ag Outlook vs the percent change.

The global corn situation continues to tighten.

Amount of U.S. corn sold, shipped and the shipped/sold ratio as of the fourth week in January as a percent of USDA's January export projection vs. the percent change in USDA's export projection from the January WASDE report to the final figures for the past 25 years.

Corn ear count populations vs. the slope of the corn yield changes

10-state objective corn ear population vs. the implied corn ear weight in pounds per ear.

Percent change in the 2024 corn and soybean yields for the top growing states and the U.S. from the September to the January report vs. the past year's August to October total precipitation as a percent of the 1895-2024 Aug-Oct average.

Monthly U.S. cash corn price as a percent of its respective rolling five-year averages; same for hog-corn, steer/heifer-corn, broiler-feed and milk-feed ratios.

Annual percent change for corn, soybean and Chicago wheat futures vs. the two-year percent change

As we end the year, we are seeing divergent price action in corn and beans. The outlook is far more bullish for corn than soybeans.

Soybean/corn futures price ratio on a per pound basis with the 25, 50 and 75% bands vs. the soybean/corn futures price ratio and the ratio of the monthly average farm price received per bushel price.

Change in the USDA's U.S. corn export projection from the November to the December WASDE reports vs. U.S. corn sales and shipments as of the first week in December as a percent of the USDA's December WASDE export projection.

2024 soybean yield as given in the USDA's November crop production report as a percent of the 25-year trend vs. the 10, 20 and 30-year trend growth rate for soybeans.

Last fall and first spring wheat ratings vs. the change in U.S. winter wheat conditions from the first to the last fall ratings

U.S. corn yield vs. both the annual yield as a percent of the 25-year trend and the harvested/planted ratio acreage ratio.

Annual U.S. corn and soybean yield trends vs. the average soybean/corn price ratio received.

U.S. soybean export sales and shipments as of the first week of November vs. those figures as a percent of the November USDA export projection.

U.S. corn sold and shipped as of the first week of November as a percent of the November USDA export projection vs. percent of corn sold to China also as the first week of November and the percent change from the USDA's November export projection until the final...

Drought and heat from August to October 2024 led to lower U.S. corn and soybean yields, with the USDA cutting projections for both crops.

This graphic shows that the per bushel decline of 1.4 from the October to November report is the largest ever since USDA started reporting monthly soybean yield figures in 1965 and the third largest drop on a percentage basis next to 1993 and then 1984.