Fundamentally Speaking

Average, minimum and maximum percent change in corn yields for the top 18 producing states and the U.S. between the August crop report and the final production figures given in January vs. the standard deviation of these 24 August to January percent yield revisions.

Crop ratings for the U.S. oat and spring wheat crops as of week 28 vs. the percent that the final yield of each crop deviates from the 2000-2024 trend

Week 28 soybean crop ratings for the top 18 states and the U.S., and the week 28 2023 and 2024 ratings vs. this year's week 28 ranking from the period 2000-2024

Week 27 (second week in July) crop ratings for the top 18 states and the U.S. with the highest and lowest ratings since 2000, along with the week 27 2023 and 2024 ratings vs. this year's week 27 ranking from the period 2000-2024

USDA is forecasting US soybean exports at 1.700 billion bushels for this season, the second lowest figure since the 2013-14 season and may soon be the lowest if subsequent WASDE reports reduce this year's exports even more.

2000-2023 average percent change in soybean planted acreage from the March Prospective Plantings report to the June Acreage figures for the top 18 states vs. the minimum and maximum percent changes between the two reports

Percent of the 1895-2024 average total March-May precipitation for 2023 and 2024.

First soybean crop rating of each year from 1990 to 2024 vs. the combined percent in the good or excellent category.

First corn crop ratings of the year vs. the initial 2023 condition report

The first corn crop rating of each year from 1986 to 2024 vs. the percent that the final corn yield of each season deviated from the 1986-2023 trend.

USDA's May WASDE old crop and first new crop stocks-to-use ratios for U.S. corn and soybeans.

Old crop and new crop wheat export sales vs. each of those figures as a percent of the May USDA WASDE export projection as of the third week in May.

End of April Palmer Drought Severity Index readings (PDSI) for both states vs. the mid-May percent of each date in D1-D4 drought as reported by the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor site.

First oat crop rating of each year from 1996 to 2024 along with the rating seen the last week of July when the crop is well advanced and close to being harvested vs. the percent that the final oat yield of each season deviated from the 25-year trend

USDA's old and new crop U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratios in the May WASDE report vs. the change in both the old and new crop U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratios from the May to November WASDE reports.

Change in the November soybean/December corn ratio from April 1 to May 6 since 2005 vs. the change in U.S. corn and soybean planted area in 1000 acres from the March 31 Prospective Plantings to the June 30 Acreage Report

U.S. corn export sales and shipments in million bushels as of the third week of April on the left-hand axis while reported on the right-hand axis are those figures as a percent of the USDA's April WASDE estimates.

Five-, ten- and twenty-year average weekly CME soybean crush margins in dollars per bushel vs. the weekly 2024 values

State yields of the top 18 soybean producing states as a percent of the U.S. yield looking at the twenty, ten and then five-year averages

There really are only six states that have yields consistently above the U.S. yield: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Ohio.