Fundamentally Speaking

Last week in the February WASDE report, USDA kept U.S. 2024/25 corn exports unchanged at 2.450 billion bushels (bb) supported by robust exports in December along with shipments, inspections, and sales data at the end of January.

In its latest Feed Outlook, USDA notes that despite U.S. corn sales to China having fallen to a six-year low, looking beyond that country and Mexico, U.S. corn export commitments to other countries are booming, up 63.5% from a year ago.

Competitive U.S. corn prices combined with import needs from Mexico and other countries have fostered strong export prospects for MY 2024/25.

This graphic shows U.S. corn export sales and shipments as of the first week of February as a percentage of the February WASDE projection on the left-hand axis along with those sales as a percent of the final USDA export projection.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the change in the U.S. corn export projection in million bushels from the February WASDE to the final USDA figure.

Total U.S. corn export sales through the first week of February this year are 1.827 bb, the third highest amount ever for this stage of the marketing year, representing 74.6% of the current WASDE export projection which is the fourth highest percent going back to at least 1990.

Current shipments are 930.4 million bushels (mb) which is also the fifth highest amount ever for this stage of the marketing year and represent 38% of the current WASDE export projection which is slightly above the 2000-2024 average of 36.5%.

As to what the future holds, much depends on how Brazil's safrinha crop turns out and how forthcoming tariffs (if implemented) will impact future and current sales on the books that have not shipped.

We do note that all the other five years since 1990, except one where sales as of the first week in February as a percent of the Feb WASDE export projection are 70% or higher, the final export projection is higher than what was given in the February report, often by large margins.

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