Fundamentally Speaking

We are heading into the final quarter of the U.S. wheat marketing year and while the USDA kept its estimate of our exports for the 2025/26 season at 900 million bushels (mb) earlier this month, the current sales and shipment pace could suggest an increase in the USDA projections.

This chart shows U.S. wheat export sales and shipments as of the third week in February as a percentage of the February USDA export projection along with those sales as a percentage of the final export figure on the left-hand axis.

Reported on the right-hand axis is the percent change in U.S. wheat exports from the February WASDE projection to the final figure.

Current wheat sales on the books are 839 mb, the second highest since the 2017/18 season and 93.2% of the 900 mb projection.

That is actually the second highest percent since the 2001/01 season.

The latest export sales report also shows that 660 mb have shipped, the highest figure since the 2011/12 season and that represents 73.3% of the February WASDE export projection, the third highest figure since 2000.

The only other year with a higher sold and shipped pace relative to the February WASDE at this point in the marketing season was in the 2007/08 season where the final figure exceeded the Feb WASDE projection by 5.2% of 63 mb.

A glance at international values shows right now the U.S. fob price not that competitive vs other key global wheat exporters but the current sales and shipment pace if maintained could prompt an upward revision in the current export projection of 900 mb.

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.