Canada Markets

The Canadian Grain Commission's week 29 Grain Statistics Weekly shows a volume of 40,600 metric tons (mt) of soybeans shipped from Vancouver terminals over the past week, with commercial stocks across the country falling to 78,200 mt for the week ending Feb. 18.

This volume is down 39.5% from one year ago and 74% below the five-year average for this period. From the attached chart, we see this is the lowest commercial inventory held for this week in 10 years, falling in four of the past five years.

Licensed exports of 3.217 million metric tons (mmt) over the first 29 weeks of 2023-24 are 7.5% higher than one year ago and 10.6% higher than the five-year average. Over the past five years, an average of 65.4% of total crop year exports are achieved by week 29, while this average pace projects forward to crop year exports of 4.95 mmt, only slightly higher than the current AAFC forecast of 4.9 mmt.

In addition, over the past five years, crop year exports through licensed terminals account for an average of 73% of total crop year exports, which would indicate exports through licensed facilities may be within 400,000 mt of a reasonable target for the crop year.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.

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