DTN Oil Update
WTI Up 15% in October on Fears of Iran War Escalation
SECAUCUS, N.J. (DTN) -- Crude futures settled up for a fourth consecutive week Friday, finishing October up 15%, amid heightened maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz as the world braced for a major military re-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Energy market participants are repositioning themselves ahead of next week's U.S. midterm elections -- the results and after-effects of which could result in sweeping changes for the oil complex. Among them is the possibility of another joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran matching the intensity of the 40-day air raid through early April.
NYMEX WTI crude for December delivery rose $1.98, or 1.98%, to settle at $104.12 bbl. For the week, front-month WTI finished up almost 1%, advancing for a fourth straight week. For all of October, WTI rose around 15%, its most since July.
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ICE Brent crude for December delivery moved up $2.76, or 2.40%, to settle at $117.64 bbl. Brent gained 1.5% on the week, also marking its fourth consecutive weekly rally. Like WTI, Brent also rose about 15% on the month for its strongest rally since July.
Downstream, NYMEX ULSD for November delivery climbed $0.0545, or 1.15%, to settle at $4.7905 gallon, though it ended the week down around 2%. For the month, it was flat.
NYMEX RBOB gasoline for November advanced $0.1270, or 3.99%, to $3.3120 gallon, recording a 0.6% gain for the week. For the month, it fell almost 4%.
The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.235 points on the day to 101.655 against a basket of foreign currencies, lending additional support to dollar-denominated commodities.
While Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Friday and U.S. Vice President JD Vance outlined parameters for direct negotiations, ongoing U.S. military force accumulation -- including a third aircraft carrier strike group and amphibious landing units slated to arrive by late November -- kept geopolitical risk premiums firmly embedded across the petroleum complex.
Maritime supply disruptions on the Strait of Hormuz also accelerated into Friday afternoon following reports that four commercial tankers were struck by mines and remote explosive devices along alternative bypass routes near the Omani coast, including an attack 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, that disabled a vessel's engine room.
While U.S. Central Command asserted it had cleared primary shipping channels through the Strait, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) disputed the claims, warning that unauthorized southern passage routes remain heavily mined.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center confirmed 43 security incidents involving commercial shipping in the Gulf region during October alone -- 30 of which were direct strikes on tankers -- marking the highest monthly concentration of attacks since hostilities broke out in late February.
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