Canada Markets

Canada's 2020 Spring Wheat Potential Based on Historical Trends

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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Prospective Canadian spring wheat yields for 2020 are arrived at based on the 10-year trend (black line), 20-year trend (grey line) and 30-year trend (brown line.) These trends point to an average 2020 yield ranging from 50.2 bushels per acre (bpa) to 54.1 bpa. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Statistics Canada's estimated spring wheat yield is 51.7 bushels per acre (bpa) in 2019, up .3 bpa from the year prior and compares to the five-year average (2014-15 through 2018-19) of 49.1 bpa. Spring wheat yields fell year-over-year in Manitoba (1.3 bpa) and Saskatchewan (.7 bpa) while are estimated 2.3 bpa higher than 2018 in Alberta.

This year's yields are estimated above the five year-average (2014-2018) across all three Prairie provinces. The national average is 2.6 bpa higher than average, with Alberta's average yield up 1.7 bpa, Saskatchewan up 2.2 bpa and Manitoba up 5.7 bpa.

As seen on the attached chart, the 2019 national spring wheat yield remains close to the long-term trends, comprised of the 10-, 20- and 30-year linear trends created by Excel. These trends have been extended to calculate prospective yields for 2020.

The 30-year trend (brown line) shows yields increasing by .7 bpa annually, and can be extrapolated to reach an average yield of 50.2 bpa in 2020.

The 20-year trend, shown by the grey line, is increasing at a rate of 1.2 bpa on an annual basis and projects forward to a prospective yield of 53.8 bpa for 2020.

The short-term trend, or 10-year trend, shown by the black line on the attached chart, is seen increasing at a rate of 1.2 bpa and projects forward to an average 2020 yield of 54.1 bpa.

Of the three trend lines drawn, the highest R-squared or coefficient of determination is calculated for the 20-year trend at 79.6%, or in other words, the model explains 79.6% of the variability in the results for the 20-year trend.

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