Canada Markets

Canada's 2020 Potential Soybean Yield Based on Historical Trends

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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The linear 10-year trend (black line), 20-year (grey line) and 30-year trend (brown line) for Canadian soybean yield is projected forward to 2020, pointing to a range from 40.5 bushels per acre to 44.9 bpa. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

Statistics Canada estimated Canada's average soybean yield at 39.6 bushels per acre, down 3.8 bpa from 2018 and 2.3 bpa below the five-year average. Yields achieved in the major producing provinces fell year over year, including Quebec, which saw yields fall by 4.3 bpa, Ontario, where yields fell by 7.3 bpa and Manitoba, where yields fell 4.8 bpa year over year.

Statistics Canada's average yield estimates did increase year over year across Saskatchewan, reported 7.3 bpa higher, as well as Alberta, where yields increased by 2.6 bpa, although harvested acres were a modest 139,200 acres and 6,500 acres, respectively.

Of the major producing provinces, the estimated yield for Saskatchewan was the only province to achieve a yield above the province's five-year average, while harvested acres in the province has fallen from 845,000 acres to 139,200 acres over the past two years.

As seen on the attached chart, the average national yield falls below the 10-, 20- and 30-year linear yield trends as generated by Excel. These trends have been extended to calculate prospective yields for 2020.

The 30-year trend, as shown by the brown line, shows yields increasing by 0.2 bpa annually, while extends forward to achieve a 42.1 bpa average yield in 2020.

The 20-year trend, indicated by the grey line, is seen increasing at a rate of 0.5 bpa annually, while extends forward to an average yield of 44.9 bpa. This would be a record national yield, above Statistics Canada's record estimate of 44.6 bpa in 2012.

The short-term 10-year trend, represented by the black line on the attached chart shows yields decreasing at a modest 0.3 bpa annually, while projects forward to arrive at an average national yield of 40.4 bpa.

Of the three trend lines drawn, the highest R-squared or coefficient of determination is calculated for the 20-year trend at 37%, or in other words, the model explains 37% of the variability in the results for the 20-year trend, which is a low percentage and should lead one to question the model's ability to predict forward.

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