Canada Markets

Canada's 2020 Corn Yield Potential Based on Historical Trends

Cliff Jamieson
By  Cliff Jamieson , Canadian Grains Analyst
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This chart points to prospective yields for 2020 corn in Canada based on the 10-year trend (black line), 20-year trend (grey line) and the 30-year trend (brown line). These trends are extrapolated to result in a potential 2020 yield ranging from 156.1 bushels per acre to 166.8 bpa. (DTN graphic by Cliff Jamieson)

The national average corn yield reported by Statistics Canada was 147.2 bushels per acre in 2019, down 5.8% from the five-year average and the lowest estimated yield in seven years.

All major growing areas of the country realized below-average yields, with Quebec's provincial average estimated at 141.4 bpa, 8.8% below average, Ontario's yield at 158.4 bpa, down 3.3% and Manitoba's yield at 109.7 bpa, down 9.5% from the province's five-year average.

As seen on the attached chart, the national yield falls below the 10-, 20- and 30-year linear yield trends.

The attached chart points to historical trends in Canada's corn yields based on linear trends generated on an Excel chart, while these trends have been extended to arrive at a prospective yield for 2020.

The 30-year trend (brown line) shows yields increasing by 2.1 bpa annually, while can be extrapolated to reach an average yield of 162.2 bpa in 2020. This is close to the current record national average yield of 162.6 bpa achieved in 2015.

The 20-year trend, shown by the grey line, is increasing at a rate of 2.6 bpa on an annual basis and projects forward to a prospective yield of 166.8 bpa.

The 10-year trend, as indicated by the black line on the attached chart, is seen increasing at a rate of 0.7 bpa annually, which projects to a 2019 yield of 156.1 bpa.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's first forecasts for 2020-21 will be released in January.


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