Producer Deliveries as of Week 19
In week 19, or the week ending Dec. 15, producers delivered 1.2441 million metric tons of the principal field crops into the licensed grain handling system, down from the previous week and 4% below the four-week average. Since week 7, these weekly deliveries have ranged from a low of 1.2049 mmt to a high of 1.6484 mmt.
As seen on the attached chart, cumulative deliveries as of week 19 remain at a robust 23.8125 mmt, a total volume that is 3.5% higher than the same period in 2018-19, 19.4% higher than the five-year average and 29.3% higher than the 10-year average. This is most-likely a record for this period.
No clear trends are seen when one considers the volumes of the various grains delivered, as shown by the colored bars on the attached chart. While wheat deliveries over the first 19 weeks are 4% below the same 19-week period last crop year, durum deliveries are 43.2% higher, soybeans are 48.7% lower and canola is 3.4% higher. Producers have been aggressively delivering oats (17.8%), barley (22.8%) and peas (27.4%), with the year-over-year change in brackets.
Week 19 stocks in primary elevators are reported at 3.8275 mmt, down 5.6% from the crop year high reported in week 18. As well, this volume is down 1.7% from the same week in 2018-19 while 2.2% higher than the three-year average.
While stocks in Manitoba elevators are 17% below the three-year average, stocks in Saskatchewan are 5.5% higher than average and in Alberta are 11.2% higher than average. Provincial stocks as a percentage of estimated working capacity, as estimated by Quorum Corporation's Grain Monitoring Program range from 63.5% in Manitoba at 82.3% in Alberta. Overall space remains good on average across the prairies.
The challenges of winter shipping lie ahead and bears watching. In week 18 and week 19, CN Rail spotted 97% and 95% of the cars wanted for loading in the country, respectively. Over the past four shipping weeks, CP's performance has slipped from spotting 99% of the cars wanted for loading in week 15 to 74% in week 19, dropping each consecutive week.
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Cliff Jamieson can be reached at email@example.com
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