Canada Markets

The USDA's March Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report shows the estimate for global oilseed production in 2018-19 trimmed slightly from the previous month although remains at a record 593.01 million metric tons, up 3% from the previous crop year. Estimated ending stocks for 2018-19 are shown at 121.71 mmt, up 6% from the previous crop year.

According to weekly data reported by the European Commission and sourced from the International Grains Council, the largest year-over-year change in is shown for soybeans, with export prices FOB selected locations ranging from 14 to 19% below year-ago levels, measured in U.S. dollars. Despite a 105% year-over-year increase in forecast U.S. ending stocks, U.S. Gulf prices are reported to be up 1% over the past month, the only increase shown for the month reported for soybeans, while prices are down 14% from last year, the smallest change of the four points of origin reported for soybeans. While not shown, this report shows U.S. soy offers trending higher for six consecutive months to $352/mt USD, as of March 12.

Canadian canola appears a buy relative to the year-over-year move shown for competing rapeseed. Canadian canola offers are reported at $369/mt, down 14% year-over-year, a steeper drop than the 4% decline noted for Australian canola, the 5% drop in E.U. rapeseed and the 6% drop in Ukraine rapeseed. Canola's 14% drop is equal to the 14% drop faced in U.S. Gulf soybeans, despite facing a more favorable fundamental situation. Current stocks/use for U.S. soybeans is estimated at 21.9% by the USDA for 2018-19, while AAFC's February estimates for canola point to a 12.2% stocks/use ratio.

There should be no surprise that canola rallied as much as $7.70/mt on Thursday and market chatter quickly pointed to rumors of Chinese buying interest.

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