Ag Weather Forum

The past 10-month period in the Lower 48 U.S. states has been remarkable for dryness. In fact, it's been so dry that August 2025 through May 2026 now ranks as the sixth driest such period on record for the contiguous United States. This analysis is featured in the USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin posted June 9 for the week of May 31-June 6.

The report noted that, "Across the contiguous United States, August-May precipitation averaged just 20.78 inches, well below the 20th century mean of 24.23 inches. It was the nation's driest August-May period since 1976-77, when an average of 20.20 inches fell." This dryness landed easily in the Top 10 despite near-normal precipitation in the Lower 48 states during May 2026.

Historically, the first half of the 20th century featured a cluster of dry August-to-May periods. The driest August-through-May period on record is 1917-18, with 19.97 inches. This dry stretch is closely followed by 1933-34, with 20 inches from August through May. The 1976-77 period is third driest with its 20.20 inches. Then we find 1930-31 fourth with 20.23 inches, and 1924-25 in fifth place with 20.30 inches precipitation. The first half of the 20th century certainly had chronic dryness.

That extensive and lingering dryness has made a sizeable impact on the U.S. Drought Monitor. The USDA analysis noted that "drought coverage -- as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor -- topped 60% of the area of the Lower 48 States each week from April 7 to May 26, 2026."

The impact of dryness was made even worse by record-setting high temperatures for the contiguous U.S. The USDA report noted that the U.S. August-May period was by far the warmest such period on record. "Across the Lower 48 States, the August 2025-May 2026 average temperature of 52.38 (degrees Fahrenheit) was 4.16 degrees F above the 1901-2000 mean value of 48.22 F," the report said. "Prior to 2025-2026, the warmest August-May period had occurred in 2011-12, with an average temperature of 51.74 F."

This dry 10-month time frame's positioning in the history ledger of contiguous U.S. is also a culmination of significant smaller periods of dryness during the past 10 months. And, as we have seen with such occurrences as record-level rangeland fires and winter wheat crop loss, the consequences of such a period of dryness and warmth can be extreme.

The full U.S. Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin is available here: https://www.usda.gov/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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