Ag Weather Forum

Meteorological spring arrived on March 1 and it spans through May 31. While this is different from astronomical spring, which starts on March 20, spring means warmer weather and an increase in the frequency of severe thunderstorms. Temperatures are on the rise for a decent portion of the country for the first full week of March and the weather pattern looks active east of the Rocky Mountains. As temperatures turn higher and storm systems move into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the severe storm risk will heighten this week.

Severe storms could target the Central and Southern Plains through the upcoming weekend, but these areas won't be the only regions under the gun. Storms could spread as far north as Iowa and Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be the main risks with stronger storms. However, some storms could produce heavy rain and localized flooding from Dallas, Texas, to Indianapolis, Indiana.

STORMS TARGET GREAT PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY

The first round of severe storms this week could target Kansas into north Texas on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the threat will shift east and north as a low-pressure system moves into the Mississippi Valley. Along the system's warm front, a few marginally severe storms are possible across southern Indiana and southwest Ohio. From northeast Texas into southern Illinois, the threat of severe thunderstorms will be slightly greater and any stronger storms throughout these areas could produce locally damaging wind gusts over 55 mph, hail greater than 1 inch in diameter, and a few isolated tornadoes.

Not only are strong winds, large hail and tornadoes risks with these storms, but heavy rainfall could also target these areas. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk for flash flooding from northeast Texas into southern Ohio and rainfall could approach nearly 1-2 inches for areas of northern Arkansas, southern Missouri, and southern Illinois on Wednesday.

PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE GUN THURSDAY-FRIDAY

By Thursday, more than 10 million people could be threatened by severe storms with the severe storm threat extending from western Texas northward into western Iowa. Some of the stronger storms on Thursday could pose a risk for hail near 1-2 inches in diameter, especially across western Texas into western Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorm wind gusts over 60-65 mph could threaten areas from Abilene, Texas, to Dodge City, Kansas. Farther to the north on Thursday night, storms across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa could lead to isolated hail near or greater than 1 inch in diameter.

Yet another round of severe weather will target the central United States on Friday. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an area from northeast Texas into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. However, some of the strongest storms could target Oklahoma City to Kansas City, Kansas.

A cold front will be sweeping across the Plains on Friday and that will drive the thunderstorm risk across Kansas and Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the cold front, high temperatures will surge into the 70s or near 80 degrees Fahrenheit and gusty south winds will usher in moist air from the Gulf. Warm and moist air ahead of a strong cold front is an ideal pattern to lend to severe thunderstorms developing across the Plains in the spring.

Northeast Texas into southwest Missouri could also see heavy rain with Friday's thunderstorms. Some storms will be able to tap into moist air and produce nearly 2 inches of rain within 24 hours. However, will this rain be enough to alleviate the drought and precipitation deficits across the center of the country? To find out more about the precipitation outlook through early March, you can read John Baranick's latest Ag Weather Forum blog here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

As the U.S. ventures further into spring, farmland across the Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Southeast will be at risk for strong storm systems moving through. Warm, moist air butting up against a cold front could lead to severe weather outbreaks that eventually lead to damaging wind gusts, large hail and an occasional tornado.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over https://www.dtnpf.com/…

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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